Week's main events (June 08 – June 12)

Global markets are heading into a highly volatile week, shaped by geopolitical signals from the Middle East and a dense macro data calendar. The focus will be on US inflation indicators – CPI and PPI – the final readings before the Federal Reserve’s June meeting, alongside US housing and trade statistics. The ECB and Bank of Canada will announce policy decisions, with the ECB widely expected to raise rates amid accelerating eurozone inflation. The UK will publish its April GDP, and China will release fresh trade and inflation data.

Beyond macroeconomics, the week features two landmark events: SpaceX is preparing what could become the largest IPO in global market history, targeting a valuation of $1.75-2.0 trillion and aiming to raise $40-80 billion, with the listing planned for June 12 on Nasdaq. Meanwhile, OPEC+ will hold its first meeting since the UAE’s exit, discussing a potential formal quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day for July – though real spare capacity remains concentrated among only a few producers, led by Saudi Arabia.

Monday, June 08
The Monday Asian session kicks off with a critical focus on the revised Japan Q1 GDP data. The preliminary print surprisingly beat market consensus by expanding at an annualized pace of 0.8%, driven by a highly anticipated rebound in private consumption and resilient auto and tech exports. Traders will look closely at this revised release to see if those growth drivers hold up or suffer a downward correction, which often happens with Japan’s initial capital expenditure estimates. If the revised growth numbers hold steady or edge higher, it confirms that domestic demand is successfully absorbing wage gains from the spring negotiations. This would hand the Bank of Japan the green light to proceed with a rate hike toward 1.0%, boosting the JPY. It’s a bank holiday in Australia.

Main events of the day:
- Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

Tuesday, June 09
On Tuesday, the session opens with Australia’s dual confidence indicators from Westpac and NAB. Given the RBA’s rigid “higher-for-longer” policy stance to combat domestic service sector inflation, any severe deterioration in consumer sentiment will contrast sharply with resilient business conditions. Shortly after, China’s Trade Balance takes center stage. Forecasters anticipate the trade surplus to hover around $89.0 to $91.5 billion, a solid stabilization from the volatile spring numbers. Across the Atlantic, the market receives identical trade balance prints from the US and Canada. For the Canadian Dollar (CAD), an expanding trade surplus driven by crude exports would offer fundamental support.