EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is showing weak growth, recovering from local lows of July 3, updated the day before. The instrument is testing 1.0790 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new movement drivers. Among other things, October business activity statistics for the eurozone and the US will be published today. Forecasts call for a weak increase in the eurozone Manufacturing PMI from 45.0 points to 45.1 points and in the Services PMI — from 51.4 points to 51.6 points, while the Composite PMI is likely to adjust from 49.6 points to 49.7 points. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline from 40.6 points to 40.5 points, and the Services PMI — from 50.6 points to 50.5 points. Data from France also do not promise confident growth: the Services PMI is expected to remain at the previous level of 49.6 points, while the Manufacturing PMI may decrease from 44.6 points to 44.4 points. Meanwhile, forecasts for US indicators suggest an increase in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI from 47.3 points to 47.5 points, while the Services PMI a decrease is expected from 55.2 points to 55.0 points. Some pressure on the single currency's position was exerted the day before by October data on Consumer Confidence in the eurozone, which improved slightly from –12.9 points to –12.5 points. Finally, European investors are discussing the prospects for further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB): in her recent speech, the regulator's President Christine Lagarde admitted that the agency has not decided on the pace of further reductions in borrowing costs yet. At the same time, the official did not rule out the possibility of reducing the interest rate by 50 basis points at once at the next meetings. In October, the ECB adjusted the indicator by –25 basis points and slightly improved its inflation forecasts for 2025.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is trading with a weak upward trend, staying close to the local lows of August 16, updated the day before. The reason for the active decline in the British currency rate yesterday was the speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who again hinted at the possibility of easing monetary parameters in November. Among other things, the official noted that inflation in the country was lower than expected a year ago. At the same time, he emphasized that the Bank of England has yet to fully assess the scale of structural changes in the economy that have occurred recently. In any case, Bailey has previously said that the cautious approach to reducing borrowing costs could change if there is consistent evidence of easing inflationary pressures. There is now nothing stopping the Bank of England from adjusting the interest rate in November, perhaps even at a faster pace than originally expected. Investors are also increasing expectations that the rate will be cut again in December: the market currently estimates the probability of such a scenario at 60.0%. According to data released last week, annual inflation in the UK slowed in September from 2.2% to 1.7%, compared with a forecast of 1.9%, while the Core Consumer Price Index fell from 3.6% to 3.2%, compared with a preliminary estimate of 3.4%. Business activity data are due out in the UK today, with analysts expecting the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to fall to 51.4 points in October from 51.5 points and the Services PMI to fall to 52.2 points from 52.4 points. Meanwhile, forecasts for similar statistics from the US, which will also hit the market today, suggest an increase in the Manufacturing PMI from 47.3 points to 47.5 points, while the Services PMI may decrease from 55.2 points to 55.0 points.