EUR/USD
The European currency shows a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, developing the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday, when quotes managed to update local highs from January 27: the instrument is testing the 1.0465 mark for a breakdown, while traders are waiting for new drivers of movement. Among other things, investors will focus on the February report on the level of business sentiment in the economy today at 12:00 (GMT+2): the sentiment index in the eurozone economy is likely to increase from 95.2 points to 96.0 points, the sentiment indicator in the services sector – from 6.6 points to 6.8 points, and the level of consumer confidence may be fixed at −13.6 points. In addition, February inflation data from Spain will be released today: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the harmonized index of consumer prices from 2.9% to 2.8% YoY and a noticeable increase of 0.4% after −0.1% MoM. So far, the single currency has been pressured by the consumer confidence index in Germany published yesterday by the analytical portal Gfk Group: in March, the indicator fell from −22.4 points to −24.7 points, while analysts expected −21.0 points. Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), US statistics on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter will be published, which is expected to remain at 2.3%, as well as data on durable goods orders: according to forecasts, in January the indicator will be adjusted from -2.2% to 2.0%, and excluding defense and aviation orders – from 0.4% to 0.3%. Investors will also pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21, which could accelerate from 219.0 thousand to 221.0 thousand, and the number of repeat applications from citizens on February 14 could remain at 1.869 million.
GBP/USD
The British pound is trading slightly lower in the GBP/USD pair during the morning session, correcting after a predominantly “bullish” trend at the beginning of the week, as a result of which quotes managed to update local highs from December 18: the instrument is testing the 1.2655 mark for a breakdown, while investors are awaiting the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Investors will focus on US data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as January data on durable goods orders, at 15:30 (GMT+2). It is expected that the growth rate of the US economy will not change from the previous value of 2.3%, and the dynamics of capital goods orders may add 2.0% after −2.2% a month earlier, while the indicator excluding defense and aviation orders may adjust from 0.4% to 0.3%. On Friday at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive key data on consumer inflation for the US Fed – the price index of personal consumption expenditures: analysts expect a slowdown in the core indicator in January from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY, and MoM, a correction is expected from 0.2% to 0.3%, while the broader index may fall from 2.6% to 2.3% and remain at the previous level of 0.3%, respectively. In addition, investors continue to evaluate the data on retail sales from the UK, presented at the end of last week: sales volumes in January added 1.7% after −0.6% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and the indicator slowed from 2.8% to 1.0% YoY with expectations of 0.6%.