EUR/USD
The euro has been mixed in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.0910. The day before, the instrument once again demonstrated quite active growth, but was unable to update the local highs formed last week. The reason for the "bullish" dynamics was macroeconomic data from the US, according to which Retail Sales volumes in February increased by 0.2% in monthly terms, recovering from –1.2% in the previous month with a forecast of 0.7%, and slowed down from 3.9% to 3.1% in annual terms. The figure excluding autos rose by only 0.3%, compared with expectations of 0.5%, while in January it showed a decline of 0.6%. American investors also noted the sharp drop in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in March from 5.7 points to –20.0 points, while analysts had expected –1.9 points. Today, at 12:00 (GMT+2), the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) will release business sentiment data: the German Economic Sentiment index in March could rise from 26.0 points to 48.1 points, and the Economic Sentiment index for the eurozone as a whole could rise from 24.2 points to 39.6 points, while the Current Situation index in Germany, according to preliminary estimates, will improve its negative dynamics from –88.5 points to –80.5 points. In the US, today, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the February statistics on the dynamics of Housing Starts will be presented, and tomorrow, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be announced: currently, markets are not counting on a softening of monetary parameters, but the regulator’s position following the publication of the follow-up statement is still expected to be more loyal to a reduction in the interest rate.
GBP/USD
During the Asian session, the pound is consolidating in the area of local highs of early November (1.2970): the activity on the market remains restrained, as investors prefer to wait for new drivers for movement of quotes. The results of the US Federal Reserve meeting will be announced tomorrow, at 20:00 (GMT+2). The regulator is currently expected to maintain the interest rate at 4.50%, despite concerns about the prospects of the national economy. In addition, markets are concerned about President Donald Trump's "hawkish" trade policies, which are already reflected in the dollar's dynamics and could lead to more fundamental changes in the global environment in the future. In April the White House is preparing to introduce retaliatory higher duties for all trade partners that in one way or another limit the import of American goods. This could also affect Great Britain, which has previously asked for exceptions to be made for it in the matter of steel and aluminum exports. After cutting by 25 basis points to 4.50%, market consensus is that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold at Thursday's meeting, reaffirming the "gradual and cautious" approach to policy adjustments that Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey has repeatedly stressed, highlighting ongoing economic uncertainty both domestically and globally. At least two of the nine participants at the upcoming meeting are expected to vote in favor of a further 25-basis-point cut in borrowing costs. Also, on Thursday, at 09:00 (GMT+2), the UK will release data on the labour market: it is expected that Claimant Count in February will decrease from 22.0 thousand to 7.9 thousand, the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus in January will add another 5.9%, and Average Earnings Including Bonus will adjust from 6.0% to 5.9%, while the Unemployment Rate will be fixed at 4.4%.