Morning Market Review for 09.04.2025

EUR/USD

The European currency is showing confident growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, developing the upward signal formed at the beginning of the week. The instrument is testing 1.1060 for a breakout, while investors are analyzing the first reactions of world leaders to the introduction of import duties by the United States. Last week, President Donald Trump announced tariffs in addition to taxes on imported steel, aluminum and a range of other goods. Separately, the White House administration imposed a 25.0% tariff on imported passenger cars. China faces the greatest restrictions, with the final rate for some goods now around 104.0%. EU products are currently subject to duties of 20.0%, but it is possible that the rate could be adjusted upward if the European Commission introduces retaliatory measures, coordinating its actions with, for example, Canada and other countries. Macroeconomic statistics from the US, published the day before, put additional pressure on the position of the American currency: the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Business Optimism index fell from 100.7 points to 97.4 points in March, while analysts had expected 101.3 points. Today, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting dated March 19 will be published. Markets are hoping for clues about how the central bank's monetary policy will change as it faces new challenges in the form of significant trade restrictions. Now some analysts do not rule out that the interest rate will be adjusted four or even five times this year, given the growing pressure on the Fed from President Donald Trump, who has long been calling on the regulator to reduce the cost of borrowing.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading with an upward trend during the morning session, developing the "bullish" momentum formed the day before, when the instrument managed to retreat from the local lows of March 4. Quotes are testing 1.2845 for a breakout, while trading participants expect the emergence of new movement drivers. Investors will be focused on the minutes of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee meeting dated 20 March at 11:30 (GMT+2) today. The regulator then kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, making a decision almost unanimously. The rate was cut by 25 basis points in February and twice last year. Following the March meeting, the follow-up statement was published, in which officials noted increasing inflation risks and also emphasized that in January, inflation in the country accelerated from 2.5% to 3.0%, exceeding the regulator’s forecasts. Moreover, the Bank expects that in the third quarter the Consumer Price Index will be 3.75%, which will complicate the further implementation of soft monetary policy. At the same time, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate also remains worse than expected: it is possible that the economy will also suffer significantly from the introduction of import duties by the United States. Last week, President Donald Trump announced tariffs in addition to taxes on imported steel, aluminum and a range of other goods. Separately, the White House administration imposed a 25.0% tariff on imported passenger cars. China faces the greatest restrictions, with the final rate for some goods now around 104.0%.

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Publication date:

09 April 2025 - 11:37 (GMT)

The New Zealand dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the NZD/USD pair during the morning session, consolidating near 0.5530. Market activity remains fairly strong, but investors are still concerned about the impact of the White House's trade policy on the global economy. Today, "reciprocal" tariffs on goods imported into the United States came into effect. Moreover, President Donald Trump further raised the aggregate import tariff to a record 104.0% for China, as previously announced, which was worse than the most negative forecasts, which assumed a maximum of 60.0%. The White House administration may also impose a 100.0% tax on the products of semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) if it does not set up operations in the United States. At the same time, the company's management promised in March to invest about 100.0 billion dollars in the construction of five additional plants in the United States. Meanwhile, the New Zealand currency is under pressure from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) decision to cut its interest rate by another 25 basis points to 3.50%, the fifth adjustment since mid-2024, when it began its gradual monetary easing programme. In the follow-up statement, the regulator noted that inflation in the country remains close to the middle of the target range of 1.0–3.0%, but at the same time, the pace of economic growth is showing stability only in some sectors. RBNZ officials also noted the deterioration in global market conditions amid the introduction of higher duties by the United States, allowing for a correction in forecasts as the situation develops. At the same time, further reductions in borrowing costs are still allowed. New Zealand faces a minimum import tariff of 10.0% and is actively seeking a trade deal with the White House administration. Today, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting dated March 19 will be published. Markets are hoping for clues about how the central bank's monetary policy will change as it faces new challenges in the form of significant trade restrictions. Now some analysts do not rule out that the interest rate will be adjusted four or even five times this year, given the growing pressure on the Fed from President Donald Trump, who has long been calling on the regulator to reduce the cost of borrowing.

The US dollar is declining in the USD/JPY pair during Asian trading, once again approaching local lows updated at the end of last week. The instrument is actively testing 145.30 for a breakdown, while the US dollar is experiencing pressure from President Donald Trump's trade policy. Today, "reciprocal" tariffs on goods imported into the United States came into effect. Moreover, President Donald Trump further raised the aggregate import tariff to a record 104.0% for China, as previously announced, which was worse than the most negative forecasts, which assumed a maximum of 60.0%. The White House administration may also impose a 100.0% tax on the products of semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) if it does not set up operations in the United States. At the same time, the company's management promised in March to invest about 100.0 billion dollars in the construction of five additional plants in the United States. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics from Japan released today were mixed. The Consumer Confidence index fell from 34.9 points to 34.1 points in March, while analysts expected 34.7 points, and Machine Tool Orders increased by 11.4% after 3.5% in the previous month. Tomorrow, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will release March inflation data: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual Consumer Price Index from 2.8% to 2.6%, and in the Core CPI — from 3.1% to 3.0%.

The XAU/USD pair is showing significant growth during the Asian session, testing 3020.00 again. Demand for gold is once again leading to an active increase in the instrument's quotes, whereas previously investors were closing some of their long positions, locking in profits and covering losses from the sharp fall on stock markets. The market's focus, as before, is on the US tariffs, which officially came into force today. Last week, President Donald Trump announced tariffs in addition to taxes on imported steel, aluminum and a range of other goods. Separately, the White House administration imposed a 25.0% tariff on imported passenger cars. China faces the greatest restrictions, with the final rate for some goods now around 104.0%. Today, at 20:00 (GMT+2), the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting dated March 19 will be published. Markets are hoping for clues about how the central bank's monetary policy will change as it faces new challenges in the form of significant trade restrictions. Now some analysts do not rule out that the interest rate will be adjusted four or even five times this year, given the growing pressure on the Fed from President Donald Trump, who has long been calling on the regulator to reduce the cost of borrowing. Tomorrow, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will release March inflation data: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the annual Consumer Price Index from 2.8% to 2.6%, and in the Core CPI — from 3.1% to 3.0%.