Oil Firms as FX Awaits FOMC Minutes | 18th February, 2026
Oil Up, FX Cautious
Global markets are showing a mixed tone as oil prices edge higher while currency markets tread cautiously ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. WTI crude is holding above the $62.00 mark, supported by ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence supply dynamics. In the FX space, antipodean currencies are in focus: AUD/NZD pushes above 1.1750 after the RBNZ held rates steady, while NZD/USD slides toward 0.6000 as policymakers downplay hawkish prospects. Meanwhile, AUD/USD trades with a negative bias below 0.7100, and EUR/USD consolidates around the mid-1.1800s as traders await fresh policy signals from the Federal Reserve.
WTI Crude Oil Forecast
Current Price and Context
WTI crude edges higher above the $62.00 level as markets monitor ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence global supply dynamics. Price action reflects cautious optimism amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran negotiations remain central, with potential easing of sanctions affecting supply outlook.
US Economic Data: Demand expectations remain tied to US growth resilience.
FOMC Outcome: Dollar direction following the Fed minutes may influence oil pricing.
Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support medium-term demand.
Monetary Policy: Rate expectations shape broader risk sentiment and energy demand forecasts.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Gradual recovery within broader range.
Resistance: $63.20
Support: $61.40
Forecast: Further gains possible if geopolitical tensions persist or supply risks re-emerge; however, upside may be capped by Dollar strength.
US Economic Data: Stable US yields support the Dollar.
FOMC Outcome: Minutes could clarify timing of rate adjustments.
Trade Policy: Limited immediate impact.
Monetary Policy Divergence: ECB-Fed expectations remain central to medium-term direction.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Sideways consolidation.
Resistance: 1.1860
Support: 1.1780
Forecast: Breakout potential hinges on the tone of the FOMC Minutes.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Neutral and data-dependent.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US Treasury yields, Eurozone macro data.
Wrap-Up
With the FOMC Minutes looming, currency markets remain range-bound as participants look for clarity on the Fed’s rate trajectory. A hawkish tone could reinforce Dollar strength and maintain pressure on high-beta currencies, while a dovish shift may provide relief to the AUD, NZD, and EUR. In commodities, oil’s direction will continue to hinge on geopolitical developments and supply expectations. Overall, volatility may pick up sharply once the Fed’s policy signals are digested across FX and energy markets.
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