Oil Surges on Hormuz Tensions as Dollar Holds Firm | 13th April, 2026

Oil Surges, Dollar Holds

Markets are reacting sharply to escalating geopolitical tensions after renewed threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, while the US Dollar steadies near key levels as traders assess broader risk sentiment and monetary policy expectations. Currency markets remain mixed, with Yen crosses under pressure from geopolitical uncertainty and Dollar strength holding firm despite some consolidation, as investors balance safe-haven flows against technical setups across major pairs.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude has surged toward $98.00, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and threats to disrupt supply via the Strait of Hormuz. The rally reflects strong risk premium pricing, with markets reacting to potential supply shocks in a critical global oil transit route.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Escalating tensions and blockade threats in the Strait of Hormuz are significantly boosting oil prices.

• US Economic Data: Strong US demand outlook continues to support energy consumption expectations.

• FOMC Outcome: Higher-for-longer rate expectations may eventually cap demand growth.

• Trade Policy: Global trade uncertainties remain secondary but could impact long-term demand.

• Monetary Policy: Tight financial conditions could limit upside if economic activity slows.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Strong bullish momentum.

• Resistance: $100.00

• Support: $95.00

• Forecast: Further upside likely, though overbought conditions may trigger short-term pullbacks.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Strongly bullish.

• Catalysts: Geopolitical developments and supply disruption headlines.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY is holding strong near the 160.00 level, with bullish momentum building as the pair approaches a potential breakout zone. The Dollar remains supported while the Yen continues to weaken amid policy divergence.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Reduced safe-haven demand for the Yen is weakening its position.

• US Economic Data: Stable US data supports the Dollar’s strength.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations of sustained higher US rates favor USD strength.

• Trade Policy: Stable global trade dynamics limit Yen demand.

• Monetary Policy: Wide gap between Fed tightening and BoJ easing continues to drive upside.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Bullish.

• Resistance: 160.50

• Support: 158.80

• Forecast: Break above 160.00 could trigger accelerated upside toward new highs.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bullish.

• Catalysts: Breakout above 160.00 and US economic data.

EUR/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/JPY is holding near 186.50, under pressure following failed US–Iran talks that increased geopolitical uncertainty. The pair reflects mixed sentiment between Euro stability and Yen weakness.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Failed negotiations are increasing uncertainty, impacting risk sentiment.

• US Economic Data: Indirectly influencing global market tone and cross-currency flows.

• FOMC Outcome: Dollar strength is indirectly affecting Yen crosses.

• Trade Policy: Stable but overshadowed by geopolitical tensions.

• Monetary Policy: ECB stability vs ultra-loose BoJ policy supports elevated levels.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Sideways with downside pressure.

• Resistance: 188.00

• Support: 185.50

• Forecast: Consolidation likely with downside risk if sentiment deteriorates.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral to bearish.

• Catalysts: Geopolitical headlines and risk sentiment shifts.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD is holding below the 0.7000 level, supported by a key technical confluence including the 200-hour EMA and Fibonacci retracement. The pair is attempting to stabilize after recent downside pressure.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off sentiment is limiting AUD upside.

• US Economic Data: Dollar stability is capping gains in AUD/USD.

• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed stance continues to weigh on the pair.

• Trade Policy: China-linked trade outlook influences AUD demand.

• Monetary Policy: Divergence between Fed and RBA policies impacts direction.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Neutral to slightly bearish.

• Resistance: 0.7050

• Support: 0.6950

• Forecast: Holding support may trigger a short-term rebound, but downside risks remain.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral.

• Catalysts: US data and Chinese economic signals.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

Current Price and Context

The US Dollar Index is hovering around the 99.00 level after trimming recent gains, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum. Despite the pullback, the broader trend remains supported by macro fundamentals.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand continues to support the Dollar.

• US Economic Data: CPI and macro data remain key drivers of direction.

• FOMC Outcome: Higher-for-longer expectations underpin the Dollar.

• Trade Policy: Global trade stability supports USD positioning.

• Monetary Policy: Fed policy stance remains more restrictive than peers.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Mildly bullish with consolidation.

• Resistance: 100.00

• Support: 98.50

• Forecast: Consolidation likely before the next directional move.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral to bullish.

• Catalysts: US CPI and Fed outlook.

Wrap-Up

Markets are being driven primarily by geopolitical developments and their impact on energy prices, with oil surging on supply disruption fears while the US Dollar holds steady amid mixed sentiment, leaving investors closely watching whether escalating tensions will continue to dominate price action or if upcoming economic data and central bank expectations will take over as the primary market driver.

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