Trump’s Iran Speech Deepens Market Uncertainty

Trump’s 1 April 2026 address was meant to give markets clearer direction on the war in Iran, but instead it reinforced uncertainty around the conflict’s length, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, and the wider economic fallout.

During the roughly 20-minute speech, he repeated that the US could hit Iran “extremely hard” within the next two to three weeks, while offering no clear indication of when shipping conditions in Hormuz might improve. Markets reacted quickly, with Brent crude rising to $104.44 and US crude to $102.36, as investors concluded that disruption to energy flows may last longer than previously hoped.

The speech came as the conflict entered its fifth week, with the war already expanding well beyond its initial scope. Since 28 February 2026, 13 US service members have been killed, more than 1,700 Iranian casualties have been reported by Iranian state sources, and over 400 targets were struck in the 48 hours before 1 April.

For markets, the biggest concern remains the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. With no clear US plan to restore normal shipping, traders are increasingly focused on the risk of prolonged supply disruption, higher inflation and weaker growth.

Investors had hoped for firmer guidance on how the conflict might end and under what conditions energy routes could reopen. Instead, they were left with familiar claims of progress, renewed threats and no real answer on timing. That has kept oil, trade and sentiment under pressure, while reinforcing the view that the next two to three weeks could be critical for global markets.

Discover how the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are shaping oil prices and market sentiment.