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Consumer Inflation Expectations

The Consumer Inflation Expectation released by the Melbourne Institute presents the consumer expectations of future inflation during the next 12 months. The higher expectations, the stronger the effect they will have on a probability of a rate hike by the RBA. Therefore, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low expectations are seen as negative or bearish.

Most recent - Thursday 11 May 2023 01:00

Previous
4.6%
Forecast
5%
Actual
5%

Next event - Thursday 15 June 2023 01:00

Previous
5%
Forecast
4.8%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on AUD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Consumer Inflation Expectations is 4.8%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for AUD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/AUD pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Consumer Inflation Expectations was 5% against a forecast of 5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 11 May 2023 01:00
5%
5%
Thursday 13 April 2023 01:33
5.3%
4.6%
Thursday 16 March 2023 00:00
5.4%
5%
Thursday 16 February 2023 00:00
5.6%
5.1%
Thursday 19 January 2023 00:00
-
5.6%
Thursday 15 December 2022 00:00
5.7%
5.2%
Thursday 10 November 2022 00:00
5.7%
6%
Thursday 13 October 2022 00:00
5.8%
5.4%
Thursday 15 September 2022 01:00
6.7%
5.4%
Thursday 11 August 2022 01:00
-
5.9%
Thursday 14 July 2022 01:00
5.9%
6.3%
Thursday 16 June 2022 01:00
-
6.7%
Thursday 12 May 2022 01:00
4.8%
5%
Thursday 14 April 2022 01:00
4.6%
5.2%
Thursday 10 March 2022 00:00
4.6%
4.9%
Thursday 10 February 2022 00:00
4.5%
4.6%
Thursday 20 January 2022 00:00
-
4.4%
Thursday 16 December 2021 00:00
4.1%
4.8%
Thursday 11 November 2021 00:00
-
4.6%
Thursday 14 October 2021 00:00
3.8%
3.6%
Thursday 16 September 2021 01:00
-
4.4%
Thursday 12 August 2021 01:00
3.8%
3.3%
Thursday 15 July 2021 01:00
3.7%
3.7%
Thursday 10 June 2021 01:00
3.6%
4.4%
Thursday 20 May 2021 01:00
3.6%
3.5%
Thursday 15 April 2021 01:00
-
3.2%
Thursday 11 March 2021 00:00
3.5%
4.1%
Thursday 11 February 2021 00:00
3.4%
3.7%
Thursday 21 January 2021 00:00
-
3.4%
Thursday 10 December 2020 00:00
-
3.5%
Thursday 12 November 2020 03:35
3.2%
3.5%
Thursday 15 October 2020 00:00
-
3.4%
Thursday 10 September 2020 01:00
-
3.1%
Thursday 13 August 2020 01:00
3.4%
3.3%
Thursday 16 July 2020 01:00
3.8%
3.2%
Thursday 11 June 2020 01:00
4.2%
3.3%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for AUD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Consumer Inflation Expectations result:

PreviousLatest
Exports (MoM)Bearish change4%-5%
Imports (MoM)Bearish change4%2%
Trade Balance (MoM)Bearish change14822M11158M
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.6%0.2%
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)Bearish change2.6%2.3%
AiG Industry IndexBullish change-20.1-10.9
RBA Interest Rate DecisionBullish change3.85%4.1%
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change51.852.1
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change-1%-8.1%

About Consumer Inflation Expectations

Country:Australia
Currency:AUD
Source:University of Melbourne
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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