NFIB Business Optimism Index

The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends data with quarterly surveys since 1974 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey respondents are drawn from NFIB's membership. The report is released on the second Tuesday of each month.

STARTED - Tuesday 8 July 2025 10:00

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

Previous
98.8
Forecast
98.7
Actual
98.6

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Tuesday 12 August 2025 10:00

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

There is no forecast value for NFIB Business Optimism Index yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for NFIB Business Optimism Index was 98.6 against a forecast of 98.7.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Tuesday 8 July 2025 10:00
98.7
98.6
Tuesday 10 June 2025 10:00
95.9
98.8
Tuesday 13 May 2025 10:00
94.5
95.8
Tuesday 8 April 2025 10:00
101.3
97.4
Tuesday 11 March 2025 10:00
101
100.7
Tuesday 11 February 2025 11:00
104.6
102.8
Tuesday 14 January 2025 11:00
100.8
105.1
Tuesday 10 December 2024 11:00
94.2
101.7
Tuesday 12 November 2024 11:00
91.9
93.7
Tuesday 8 October 2024 10:00
91.7
91.5
Tuesday 10 September 2024 10:00
93.6
91.2
Tuesday 13 August 2024 10:00
91.7
93.7
Tuesday 9 July 2024 10:00
89.5
91.5
Tuesday 11 June 2024 10:00
89.8
90.5
Tuesday 14 May 2024 10:00
88.1
89.7
Tuesday 9 April 2024 10:00
90.2
88.5
Tuesday 12 March 2024 10:00
90.7
89.4
Tuesday 13 February 2024 11:00
91.1
89.9
Tuesday 9 January 2024 11:00
90.7
91.9
Tuesday 12 December 2023 11:00
-
90.6
Tuesday 14 November 2023 11:00
-
90.7
Tuesday 10 October 2023 10:00
91.1
90.8
Tuesday 12 September 2023 10:00
-
91.3
Tuesday 8 August 2023 10:00
90.6
91.9
Tuesday 11 July 2023 10:00
89.9
91
Tuesday 13 June 2023 10:00
88.5
89.4
Tuesday 9 May 2023 10:00
89.6
89
Tuesday 11 April 2023 10:00
-
90.1
Tuesday 14 March 2023 10:00
-
90.9
Tuesday 14 February 2023 11:00
-
90.3
Tuesday 10 January 2023 11:00
-
89.8
Tuesday 13 December 2022 11:00
90.4
91.9
Tuesday 8 November 2022 11:00
-
91.3
Tuesday 11 October 2022 10:00
-
92.1
Tuesday 13 September 2022 10:00
-
91.8
Tuesday 9 August 2022 10:00
-
89.9
Tuesday 12 July 2022 10:00
-
89.5

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next NFIB Business Optimism Index result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-3.9%8.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.747.2
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change46.451.3
ISM Services PMIBullish change49.950.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change68.767.5
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.852.9
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.8%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change237K233K
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.4%62.3%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change144K147K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.8%7.7%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.2%4.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change29K-33K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change93.816K47.999K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change47.646.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.549
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change69.469.7
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.395M7.769M
Chicago PMIBearish change40.540.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.458.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change60.560.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change5.1%5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change4.1%4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.1%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.2%2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.7%-0.4%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.2%-0.1%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-6.3%1.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change3.4%3.5%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-6.6%16.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-7.7%15.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change-0.2%-0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change3.7%3.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change245K236K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-1.4%1.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change3.6%3.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change9.6%-13.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0%-0.4%

About NFIB Business Optimism Index

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:National Federation of Independent Business
Category:Economic Activity
Frequency:Monthly

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