Currency Market: UK PM To Resign
The British Pound is the day’s best performing currency as markets expect the resignation of the UK Prime Minister. The Pound is currently trading 0.12% higher, while the second best performing currency is the US Dollar, up 0.3%. However, technical analysts are cautious about the GBPUSD and trading against the US Dollar due to Fed hawkishness.
The worst performing currencies of the past week were the Swiss Franc, New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar. The Canadian Dollar is particularly under pressure from poor Canadian economic data and lower oil prices. The currency market is likely to witness further volatility this afternoon as Canada releases its Consumer Price Index. Furthermore, tomorrow’s PMI reports are likely to see higher volatility on the US Dollar, Euro and Great British Pound.
Why is PM Starmer Resigning?
The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is not necessarily a new story for the UK, nor is it yet confirmed. The PM’s resignation has been a theme in UK politics since 2025 when the Peter Mandelson scandal came to light. Peter Mandelson's appointment by Keir Starmer attracted significant criticism and negatively affected perceptions of his leadership.
The resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer is not necessarily a new story for the UK, nor is it yet confirmed. The PM’s resignation has been a theme in UK politics since 2025 when the Peter Mandelson scandal came to light. Peter Mandelson's appointment by Keir Starmer attracted significant criticism and negatively affected perceptions of his leadership.
However, the reason for the resignation is the growing internal rebellion within the party since the poor local election results. Leadership challenges is also another reason, particularly from Andy Burnham, who has gained substantial support among Labour MPs and is widely viewed as a potential successor.
If Andy Burnham becomes the new UK Prime Minister, markets will closely watch whether he replaces the UK Chancellor. If he appoints a new Chancellor, the GBP will likely experience higher volatility. However, the GBP outlook will depend on the replacement and their views on the UK’s monetary policy.
The effect of Andry Burnham being appointed cannot be known. On the one hand, Mr Burnham has well-respected economists as advisors. These include ex-BOE members and Goldman Sachs economists. Additionally, he has spoken about making cuts to welfare, which goes down well with investors. However, on the other hand, many investors fear he is looking to loosen fiscal policy which in the past has significantly damaged the Pound.
Great British Pound - Up in the Short-term, But Long-Term Pressures Remain
During the Asian session, the GBPUSD is witnessing both up and down volatility but continues to maintain bearish signals. The GBP index is trading higher so far, but the US Dollar is the best performing currency of the month. For this reason, even if the GBP can build momentum to form a bullish impulse wave, technical analysts will remain cautious of a downward correction. Particularly as markets expect the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish over the remainder of 2026.
During the Asian session, the GBPUSD is witnessing both up and down volatility but continues to maintain bearish signals. The GBP index is trading higher so far, but the US Dollar is the best performing currency of the month. For this reason, even if the GBP can build momentum to form a bullish impulse wave, technical analysts will remain cautious of a downward correction. Particularly as markets expect the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish over the remainder of 2026.
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