Morning Market Review for 11.04.2025

EUR/USD

The European currency shows uncertain growth in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, testing 1.1260 for a breakout. Investors are focusing on inflation statistics from Germany: as expected, the Harmonized CPI in March stood at 2.3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while the CPI rose 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on future decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, the regulator may consider the possibility of further easing monetary policy not only to combat inflation, but also to support the region's weakening economy, which now faces increased import duties from the White House. Meanwhile, market participants are analyzing inflation data published yesterday in the US: the Consumer Price Index in March slowed down in annual terms from 2.8% to 2.4%, with a forecast of 2.6%, and in monthly terms from 0.2% to –0.1%, while experts expected 0.1%. In turn, the Core CPI fell from 3.1% to 2.8% and from 0.2% to 0.1%, respectively. Such a significant decline in consumer inflation has increased market expectations for monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, especially as the White House has stepped up pressure on monetary authorities to adjust borrowing costs.

GBP/USD

The British pound is gaining in value in the GBP/USD pair during the morning session, testing 1.3000 for a breakout and preparing to end the week with a significant increase. The British currency is supported by macroeconomic statistics. Thus, Industrial Production volumes increased by 0.1% year-on-year after –0.5% in the previous month, with expectations of –2.3%, and in monthly terms the indicator added 1.5% after –0.5%, while Manufacturing Production grew by 0.3% and 2.2%, which also turned out to be significantly better than market forecasts of –2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.5% in February after flat growth in January, with preliminary estimates of 0.1%. Investors' focus today will be on US macroeconomic statistics. On Friday, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive data on production inflation: analysts expect the Producer Price Index in March to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year and from 0.0% to 0.2% month-on-month. The Core CPI excluding Food and Energy could be adjusted from 3.4% to 3.6%. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan will present data on Consumer Confidence: a sharp decline in the index is expected from 57.0 points to 54.5 points, given the continuing uncertainty in the global and American economies against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's aggressive policy of trade tariffs.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is losing ground in the AUD/USD pair, once again testing 0.6200 for a breakdown after active growth over the last two trading sessions, as a result of which quotes managed to update local highs from April 4. Investors' focus today will be on US macroeconomic statistics. On Friday, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive data on production inflation: analysts expect the Producer Price Index in March to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year and from 0.0% to 0.2% month-on-month. The Core CPI excluding Food and Energy could be adjusted from 3.4% to 3.6%. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan will present data on Consumer Confidence: a sharp decline in the index is expected from 57.0 points to 54.5 points, given the continuing uncertainty in the global and American economies against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's aggressive policy of trade tariffs. Investors have access to US inflation statistics that were published the day before: the Consumer Price Index in March slowed down in annual terms from 2.8% to 2.4%, with a forecast of 2.6%, and in monthly terms from 0.2% to –0.1%, while experts expected 0.1%. In turn, the Core CPI fell from 3.1% to 2.8% and from 0.2% to 0.1%, respectively. Such a significant decline in consumer inflation has increased market expectations for monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, especially as the White House has stepped up pressure on monetary authorities to adjust borrowing costs. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar received some support from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, who said yesterday that it was too early to assess the possible impact of high US tariffs on monetary policy decisions in the coming months and softened forecasts that the regulator would cut interest rates in May, stressing that the country's financial system is well prepared for external shocks. Meanwhile, yesterday in Australia, data on inflation expectations from the Melbourne Institute was released, reflecting a noticeable increase in the index from 3.6% to 4.2%, which may have an impact on the RBA's future monetary policy.

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Publication date:

11 April 2025 - 11:20 (GMT)

The US dollar is showing a confident decline in the USD/JPY pair in Asian trading, developing a strong "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing 142.95 for a breakdown, updating the record lows of early October 2024. Negative dynamics are driven by technical factors, while the fundamental background on the market remains the same. Investors have calmed down somewhat after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on increased import tariffs, which should have a positive effect on the overall situation. At the same time, the White House administration tightened tariffs against China, bringing them to a record level of 145.0% after official Beijing announced the introduction of "mirror measures". The US economy has yet to feel the full impact of China's higher tariffs, but many consumer electronics manufacturers have said they are temporarily suspending shipments to the US until the situation becomes clearer. Today, at 14:30 (GMT+2), investors will assess data on producer inflation. In addition, they have at their disposal statistics that were published the day before: the Consumer Price Index in March slowed down in annual terms from 2.8% to 2.4%, with a forecast of 2.6%, and in monthly terms from 0.2% to –0.1%, while experts expected 0.1%. In turn, the Core CPI fell from 3.1% to 2.8% and from 0.2% to 0.1%, respectively. Such a significant decline in consumer inflation has increased market expectations for monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, especially as the White House has stepped up pressure on monetary authorities to adjust borrowing costs. Data from Japan released yesterday showed Bank Lending fell in March from 3.1% to 2.8%. At the same time, the index of domestic prices for corporate goods in March increased from 4.1% to 4.2% with a forecast of 3.9%, and the index of producer prices for goods increased from 0.2% to 0.4%.

The XAU/USD pair is gaining in value during the morning session, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed in the middle of the week. The instrument is testing 3210.00 for a breakout, updating record highs. Traders continue to closely monitor the situation on the market around import duties, which remained one of the main drivers of quotes this week. US President Donald Trump has previously imposed reciprocal tariffs on most of its partners, which has come as a bit of a shock to markets, despite the fact that similar measures were announced at the beginning of the year. The minimum rate is 10.0%, and the maximum is up to 50.0%. Later, the White House administration announced a 90-day pause in the increased tariffs (during this period, a minimum rate of 10.0% will apply to all countries), but significantly increased duties on China (to 145.0%) against the backdrop of retaliatory measures introduced by official Beijing. In 2024, the United States imported 524.66 billion dollars worth of goods from China, while the amount of American goods imported into China was about 165.0 billion dollars. Several major suppliers of consumer electronics and automobiles have already announced a temporary suspension of shipments to the United States until the situation becomes clearer. Investors' focus today will be on US macroeconomic statistics. On Friday, at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market will receive data on production inflation: analysts expect the Producer Price Index in March to accelerate from 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year and from 0.0% to 0.2% month-on-month. The Core CPI excluding Food and Energy could be adjusted from 3.4% to 3.6%. In addition, at 16:00 (GMT+2), the University of Michigan will present data on Consumer Confidence: a sharp decline in the index is expected from 57.0 points to 54.5 points, given the continuing uncertainty in the global and American economies against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's aggressive policy of trade tariffs.