Australian Dollar Slides as RBA Decision Reshapes Rate Expectations | 11th August, 2026
Aussie Slides Post-RBA
The Australian Dollar came under broad selling pressure as markets reacted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision and comments from Governor Michele Bullock. The Aussie weakened against the US Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Japanese Yen as traders reassessed the outlook for Australian interest rates. Elsewhere, Gold retreated below $4,400 as inflation concerns revived expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while the Euro struggled to extend gains beyond key technical resistance. Central bank expectations remain the dominant theme as investors assess the next moves from the RBA and Fed.
AUD/USD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Australian Dollar dropped below the 0.7050 level against the US Dollar as investors reacted to comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock following the central bank’s latest policy decision. The move reflected a reassessment of Australia’s interest rate outlook, with traders reducing bullish AUD positions.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Broader geopolitical uncertainty remained a secondary influence compared with domestic monetary policy.
• US Economic Data: US inflation developments continued influencing the Dollar and the relative outlook for AUD/USD.
• FOMC Outcome: Renewed expectations for tighter Fed policy provided additional support for the US Dollar.
• Trade Policy: Australia’s exposure to China and broader Asian trade conditions remained an important background factor.
• Monetary Policy: The RBA decision and Governor Bullock’s guidance drove the sharp repricing of the Australian Dollar.
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bearish
• Resistance: 0.7080
• Support: 0.7000
• Forecast: AUD/USD could remain under pressure following the RBA-driven decline, with a sustained break below 0.7000 potentially opening the door to further losses.
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish as traders reassess the Australian interest rate outlook.
• Catalysts: RBA commentary, Australian economic data, US inflation developments, and Federal Reserve expectations.
AUD/NZD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Australian Dollar weakened against the New Zealand Dollar following the RBA’s monetary policy decision as investors adjusted expectations for the relative policy paths of the RBA and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The move reinforced the broader selling pressure surrounding the Aussie.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Global risk conditions remained secondary to domestic central bank expectations.
• US Economic Data: US developments had limited direct influence on the cross.
• FOMC Outcome: Federal Reserve expectations remained relevant to broader market sentiment but were not the primary driver.
• Trade Policy: Economic developments in China remained important for both Australia and New Zealand.
• Monetary Policy: The changing policy outlook between the RBA and RBNZ remained the key driver of AUD/NZD.
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bearish
• Resistance: 1.1150
• Support: 1.1050
• Forecast: AUD/NZD may remain under downside pressure if markets continue pricing a relatively softer RBA policy outlook compared with the RBNZ.
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish for AUD/NZD following the RBA decision.
• Catalysts: RBA guidance, RBNZ expectations, Australian and New Zealand economic data, and Chinese economic indicators.
AUD/JPY Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Australian Dollar fell sharply against the Japanese Yen following the RBA policy announcement, extending the Aussie’s broader post-decision decline. The Yen benefited as investors reduced exposure to the Australian currency and reassessed the interest rate differential between Australia and Japan.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Risk sentiment remained important because both currencies can respond differently to changes in global uncertainty.
• US Economic Data: US developments remained a secondary influence through broader market sentiment.
• FOMC Outcome: Fed expectations could indirectly influence the pair through global yields and risk appetite.
• Trade Policy: Asian economic conditions remained relevant for both currencies.
• Monetary Policy: The RBA decision dominated price action, while expectations surrounding future Bank of Japan policy remained important.
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bearish
• Resistance: 108.50
• Support: 107.00
• Forecast: AUD/JPY may remain vulnerable to further downside if RBA expectations continue weighing on the Aussie and demand for the Yen remains supported.
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish as post-RBA selling pressure dominates the pair.
• Catalysts: RBA commentary, BoJ policy expectations, global risk sentiment, and Australian economic data.
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
Gold pulled back from its highest level since June 5 and slipped below $4,400 as renewed inflation concerns strengthened expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. The resulting support for the US Dollar and interest rate expectations encouraged profit-taking following Gold’s recent advance.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Persistent global uncertainty continued providing underlying safe-haven support.
• US Economic Data: Inflation developments remained crucial for determining the next move in Gold.
• FOMC Outcome: Renewed Fed hike expectations created pressure on the non-yielding precious metal.
• Trade Policy: Broader economic uncertainty continued providing some underlying support.
• Monetary Policy: Expectations for higher US interest rates increased the opportunity cost of holding Gold.
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Neutral to Bearish
• Resistance: $4,400
• Support: $4,330
• Forecast: Gold may remain under pressure below $4,400 if inflation-driven Fed hike expectations persist, although underlying safe-haven demand could limit deeper losses.
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish following the rejection above $4,400.
• Catalysts: US inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury yields, Dollar performance, and geopolitical developments.
EUR/USD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Euro remained supported against the US Dollar but struggled to extend its advance beyond a key resistance area. The inability to establish a sustained breakout suggested that bullish momentum was becoming more cautious as markets balanced European fundamentals against renewed expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty continued influencing demand for the US Dollar.
• US Economic Data: Inflation developments remained important for the Dollar and EUR/USD direction.
• Catalysts: ECB commentary, US inflation data, Federal Reserve expectations, and Eurozone economic releases.
Wrap-Up
The Australian Dollar took center stage as the RBA’s latest policy decision and Governor Bullock’s comments triggered broad selling across AUD pairs. The Aussie weakened against the US Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Japanese Yen as markets reassessed Australia’s interest rate outlook. Outside Australia, Gold retreated below $4,400 as inflation-driven Fed hike expectations strengthened, while the Euro struggled to extend gains beyond key resistance. Going forward, investors will closely monitor further RBA guidance alongside US inflation developments and Federal Reserve expectations, with shifting monetary policy outlooks likely to remain the primary driver across global markets.
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