Safe-Haven US Dollar Surges as Iran Tensions Pressure Global FX Markets | 28th May, 2026
Risk-Off Dollar Rally
Global financial markets remain defensive as escalating Middle East tensions and fresh US strikes in Iran continue driving safe-haven demand toward the US Dollar. Commodity-linked and risk-sensitive currencies are under pressure, while oil prices rebound on renewed supply disruption concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also closely monitoring central bank expectations as geopolitical risks increasingly dominate overall market sentiment.
GBP/USD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The British Pound is softening toward the 1.3400 level as rising geopolitical uncertainty boosts safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.
• Forecast: Further downside likely while geopolitical tensions remain elevated
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish GBP
• Catalysts: Iran headlines and Fed expectations
USD/JPY Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Japanese Yen has weakened to a four-week low against the US Dollar as strong USD demand and geopolitical risks outweigh concerns about potential Japanese intervention.
• US Economic Data: Stronger Dollar sentiment pressures Yen recovery
• FOMC Outcome: Hawkish Fed outlook continues favoring USD strength
• Trade Policy: Risk-off positioning dominates FX flows
• Monetary Policy: BoJ policy remains accommodative relative to the Fed
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bullish USD/JPY
• Resistance: 160.20
• Support: 158.80
• Forecast: Pair may remain elevated while safe-haven USD demand persists
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bullish USD
• Catalysts: Geopolitical escalation and intervention rhetoric
USD/CAD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Canadian Dollar remains pressured near its weakest levels since April as geopolitical uncertainty and broad US Dollar strength dominate market flows.
• Forecast: Upside risks remain while geopolitical tensions persist
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish CAD
• Catalysts: Oil prices and Middle East developments
WTI Crude Oil Forecast
Current Price and Context
WTI crude oil prices are edging higher above the $89.00 level after fresh US military strikes in Iran intensified fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
Key Drivers
• Geopolitical Risks: Hormuz-related supply concerns support oil prices
• US Economic Data: Stronger USD limits aggressive upside momentum
• Trade Policy: Markets monitor potential disruptions to global energy flows
• Monetary Policy: Global growth uncertainty remains a balancing factor
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bullish
• Resistance: $91.20
• Support: $88.00
• Forecast: Oil may remain supported while geopolitical tensions escalate
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bullish oil
• Catalysts: Iran developments and shipping risks around Hormuz
AUD/USD Forecast
Current Price and Context
The Australian Dollar remains near weekly lows against the US Dollar as softer RBA hike expectations and Middle East tensions continue weighing on risk-sensitive currencies.
• Trade Policy: Slower China-linked growth sentiment weighs on AUD
• Monetary Policy: Reduced RBA hike bets weaken the Australian Dollar
Technical Outlook
• Trend: Bearish
• Resistance: 0.7090
• Support: 0.7000
• Forecast: AUD/USD likely to remain vulnerable in current market conditions
Sentiment and Catalysts
• Market Sentiment: Bearish AUD
• Catalysts: RBA outlook and geopolitical developments
Wrap-Up
Global financial markets remain firmly in risk-off mode as escalating tensions between the US and Iran continue fueling safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and lifting oil prices on renewed supply disruption fears, while major currencies struggle against persistent geopolitical uncertainty and investors closely monitor further developments in the Middle East for the next major directional catalyst across FX and commodity markets.
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