Oil Reprices as Trump Signals Conflict May End Sooner

Oil prices stayed volatile as markets tried to balance easing war rhetoric against still-fragile supply conditions in the Middle East. WTI crude traded near $88.50, up 4.14%, after an earlier shock rally that drove prices as high as $119.43 before pulling back sharply.

The initial support for oil came from severe disruption risk linked to the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters shipping data showed daily tanker transits through the strait had dropped to zero, down from 37 per day before the conflict escalated. That collapse in traffic remains the clearest signal that the market is still dealing with a physical supply threat rather than just a temporary geopolitical headline.

Prices later became more unstable after President Trump said the war against Iran was ahead of schedule and “very much complete,” which encouraged traders to reduce some of the extreme risk premium built into crude. At the same time, markets began to price in possible supply relief measures, including a potential strategic reserve release and the possibility of easing sanctions on Russian oil.

Even so, policymakers have not yet taken firm action. Reuters reported that G7 finance ministers discussed reserve releases but stopped short of acting immediately, while also signalling they remain ready to intervene if needed. This leaves the market in a state where speeches can move prices intraday, but sustained direction still depends on whether real oil flows normalise.

Explore how Trump’s de-escalation comments, Strait of Hormuz shipping flows, and potential supply relief measures are shaping oil’s next move.