Week's main events (July 6 – July 10)
This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the monetary policies of major central banks and macroeconomic indicators. The spotlight will be on the release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve’s June meeting, which will help shed light on the disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the future path of interest rates. Another key event will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision: experts expect the rate to remain unchanged, though uncertainty persists amid falling global energy prices. At the same time, markets are awaiting the OPEC meeting on oil production levels, which takes on particular significance amid the normalization of trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz and a general decline in oil prices.
The macroeconomic calendar is also packed: the US will release the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Index, along with trade and home sales data. In Europe, reports on German industrial production will be key. In Japan, the market will be watching consumer spending and producer prices, which are particularly relevant given the ongoing pressure on the yen and the government bond market.
Monday, Monday, July 06
On Monday, the primary focus is on the US ISM Services PMI, a critical indicator for the world’s largest economy. Following a resilient May performance in which the index reached 54.5, market participants are looking for signs of sustained growth. A reading that maintains or exceeds the 50-threshold would reinforce the narrative of economic durability, likely supporting the US dollar (USD) and potentially tempering expectations for aggressive near-term interest rate cuts. The Eurozone Retail Sales data (May) also warrants attention, with forecasts anticipating a modest monthly increase of 0.2% following the 0.4% decline in April. A positive surprise here could provide temporary support for the euro (EUR) by suggesting consumers are holding up better than feared. At the same time, a disappointment would likely reinforce concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly as the region navigates the fiscal and inflationary challenges discussed at the recent Sintra forum.
On Monday, the primary focus is on the US ISM Services PMI, a critical indicator for the world’s largest economy. Following a resilient May performance in which the index reached 54.5, market participants are looking for signs of sustained growth. A reading that maintains or exceeds the 50-threshold would reinforce the narrative of economic durability, likely supporting the US dollar (USD) and potentially tempering expectations for aggressive near-term interest rate cuts. The Eurozone Retail Sales data (May) also warrants attention, with forecasts anticipating a modest monthly increase of 0.2% following the 0.4% decline in April. A positive surprise here could provide temporary support for the euro (EUR) by suggesting consumers are holding up better than feared. At the same time, a disappointment would likely reinforce concerns about an economic slowdown, particularly as the region navigates the fiscal and inflationary challenges discussed at the recent Sintra forum.
Main events of the day:
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3) – CHF (LOW)
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
Tuesday, Tuesday, July 07
The Tuesday session shifts focus to North America, with trade balance data due from both the US and Canada, followed by Canada’s Ivey PMI. The US trade deficit remains a closely watched gauge amid the ongoing tariff backdrop – a wider gap could reignite trade-policy debate and weigh modestly on sentiment. In contrast, a narrower deficit would support the dollar. Canada’s Ivey PMI should help confirm whether business activity is holding up after recent softness in manufacturing data. A weak set of Canadian prints could revive rate-cut speculation ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next meeting, while resilient figures would support the loonie (CAD). In Japan, the release of Average Cash Earnings for May is expected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.6%, building on April’s 3.5% growth. Given that recent annual wage negotiations concluded with gains topping 5%, steady wage acceleration remains a critical data point for the Bank of Japan as it considers further interest rate adjustments. A reading at or above the consensus would likely support the Japanese yen (JPY) by signaling that the virtuous cycle of wage-push inflation is strengthening, thereby reinforcing a hawkish stance for the BoJ.
The Tuesday session shifts focus to North America, with trade balance data due from both the US and Canada, followed by Canada’s Ivey PMI. The US trade deficit remains a closely watched gauge amid the ongoing tariff backdrop – a wider gap could reignite trade-policy debate and weigh modestly on sentiment. In contrast, a narrower deficit would support the dollar. Canada’s Ivey PMI should help confirm whether business activity is holding up after recent softness in manufacturing data. A weak set of Canadian prints could revive rate-cut speculation ahead of the Bank of Canada’s next meeting, while resilient figures would support the loonie (CAD). In Japan, the release of Average Cash Earnings for May is expected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.6%, building on April’s 3.5% growth. Given that recent annual wage negotiations concluded with gains topping 5%, steady wage acceleration remains a critical data point for the Bank of Japan as it considers further interest rate adjustments. A reading at or above the consensus would likely support the Japanese yen (JPY) by signaling that the virtuous cycle of wage-push inflation is strengthening, thereby reinforcing a hawkish stance for the BoJ.
Main events of the day:
Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
Japan Average Cash Earnings (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
UK FPC Meeting Minutes at 12:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – CAD (LOW)
Wednesday, Wednesday, July 08
Wednesday brings a wave of high-impact macroeconomic releases, with the RBNZ policy decision and the FOMC meeting minutes taking center stage. The RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25%. While a rate hike was previously discussed, the recent decline in global oil prices has diminished the immediate need for a more restrictive policy stance. However, market participants will closely scrutinize the accompanying rate statement and press conference for any indications that the central bank is preparing to initiate a tightening cycle as early as September, as many analysts now anticipate. A hawkish tone on future inflation risks could support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), whereas a neutral or dovish outlook might trigger a pullback. Later in the day, the US FOMC meeting minutes will draw significant attention as investors seek clarity on the committee’s internal divisions over the path of interest rates. Following a recent hawkish surprise under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the minutes are expected to offer insight into whether policymakers are leaning toward further rate increases to combat persistent inflationary pressures. Any confirmation of a strong appetite for additional tightening would likely bolster the US dollar (USD) and weigh on equity markets, as investors adjust their expectations for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment. Meanwhile, the US Crude Oil Reserves report will also be a key monitor, given the ongoing supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz; any unexpected decline in stockpiles could exacerbate price volatility in the energy sector.
Wednesday brings a wave of high-impact macroeconomic releases, with the RBNZ policy decision and the FOMC meeting minutes taking center stage. The RBNZ is widely expected to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 2.25%. While a rate hike was previously discussed, the recent decline in global oil prices has diminished the immediate need for a more restrictive policy stance. However, market participants will closely scrutinize the accompanying rate statement and press conference for any indications that the central bank is preparing to initiate a tightening cycle as early as September, as many analysts now anticipate. A hawkish tone on future inflation risks could support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), whereas a neutral or dovish outlook might trigger a pullback. Later in the day, the US FOMC meeting minutes will draw significant attention as investors seek clarity on the committee’s internal divisions over the path of interest rates. Following a recent hawkish surprise under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the minutes are expected to offer insight into whether policymakers are leaning toward further rate increases to combat persistent inflationary pressures. Any confirmation of a strong appetite for additional tightening would likely bolster the US dollar (USD) and weigh on equity markets, as investors adjust their expectations for a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment. Meanwhile, the US Crude Oil Reserves report will also be a key monitor, given the ongoing supply constraints in the Strait of Hormuz; any unexpected decline in stockpiles could exacerbate price volatility in the energy sector.
Main events of the day:
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (HIGH)
New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)
Thursday, Thursday, July 09
China’s inflation data sets the tone for the Asian session and typically feeds through to commodity-linked currencies – AUD and NZD in particular – given China’s role as Australia’s and New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Continued deflationary pressure on the producer side (PPI) could strengthen expectations for additional stimulus from Beijing. At the same time, the CPI print will be watched for any sign that domestic demand is finally stabilizing. In the United States, the Natural Gas Storage report remains a high-impact event for the energy sector, particularly as the ongoing geopolitical situation keeps the market hypersensitive to inventory levels. Any larger-than-expected build in storage could lead to a downward correction in natural gas prices (XNG) by alleviating concerns over mid-summer supply shortages.
China’s inflation data sets the tone for the Asian session and typically feeds through to commodity-linked currencies – AUD and NZD in particular – given China’s role as Australia’s and New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Continued deflationary pressure on the producer side (PPI) could strengthen expectations for additional stimulus from Beijing. At the same time, the CPI print will be watched for any sign that domestic demand is finally stabilizing. In the United States, the Natural Gas Storage report remains a high-impact event for the energy sector, particularly as the ongoing geopolitical situation keeps the market hypersensitive to inventory levels. Any larger-than-expected build in storage could lead to a downward correction in natural gas prices (XNG) by alleviating concerns over mid-summer supply shortages.
Main events of the day:
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (HIGH)
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)
Mexico Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3) – MXN (MED)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3) – XNG (HIGH)
Friday, Friday, July 10
Friday delivers fresh labor-market figures from Canada. Following an unexpected drop to 6.6% in May – driven by a robust surge in full-time employment – market consensus now anticipates the rate will hold steady at 6.6%. Given the Bank of Canada’s cautious approach, any deviation from this expectation will likely trigger significant volatility in the CAD. A surprise rise in unemployment would suggest the economy is finally feeling the weight of restrictive interest rates, potentially tempering expectations for further hawkish moves. At the same time, a lower-than-expected print would reinforce the narrative of a resilient domestic labor market, likely providing support for the currency. Meanwhile, the Japan Producer Price Index will provide a secondary signal on domestic price pressures, offering further insight into whether rising input costs are beginning to translate into broader inflationary momentum for the Japanese economy.
Friday delivers fresh labor-market figures from Canada. Following an unexpected drop to 6.6% in May – driven by a robust surge in full-time employment – market consensus now anticipates the rate will hold steady at 6.6%. Given the Bank of Canada’s cautious approach, any deviation from this expectation will likely trigger significant volatility in the CAD. A surprise rise in unemployment would suggest the economy is finally feeling the weight of restrictive interest rates, potentially tempering expectations for further hawkish moves. At the same time, a lower-than-expected print would reinforce the narrative of a resilient domestic labor market, likely providing support for the currency. Meanwhile, the Japan Producer Price Index will provide a secondary signal on domestic price pressures, offering further insight into whether rising input costs are beginning to translate into broader inflationary momentum for the Japanese economy.
Main events of the day:
Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – NOK (MED)
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)
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