Morning Market Review for 11.02.2025

The Australian dollar has seen mixed performance in the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session, holding near 0.6275. The day before, the instrument demonstrated quite noticeable growth, but now the "bullish" momentum has noticeably weakened, while traders are expecting the emergence of new drivers for price movements. Today, there will be speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, including a speech by the Chair of the US regulator, Jerome Powell, in Congress, and another speech by the official is expected tomorrow. On Wednesday, at 15:30 (GMT+2), the market will see January inflation data in the US, and at 21:00 (GMT+2) — the Monthly Budget Statement. Analysts expect the core cpi excluding food and energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in january, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. The US budget deficit in January could decrease from –87.0 billion dollars to –47.6 billion dollars, which will provide additional support to the American currency. The macroeconomic statistics from Australia presented today failed to provide significant support to the instrument: the Consumer Confidence index from Westpac Banking Corp. in February added 0.1% after –0.7% in the previous month, the Business Confidence index from the National Australia Bank in January rose from –2.0 points to 4.0 points, and the Business Conditions index, on the contrary, slowed from 6.0 points to 3.0 points.

The US dollar is showing mixed dynamics in the USD/JPY pair, consolidating near 152.00. Investors are in no hurry to open new positions, waiting for clarification of the White House's tariff policy and preparing for the emergence of new drivers of price movements. Tomorrow, at 15:30 (GMT+2), inflation data will be presented, which may influence the decisions of monetary authorities: analysts expect the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy to accelerate to 0.3% from 0.2% in January, and to slow to 3.1% from 3.2% on an annual basis, while the broader measure is likely to adjust from 0.4% to 0.3% and to consolidate at 2.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, some pressure on the yen's position at the beginning of the week was exerted by macroeconomic statistics from Japan, where Bank Lending volumes in January added another 3.0%, while experts expected 3.1%, the Current Situation index from Eco Watchers fell from 49.0 points to 48.6 points with preliminary estimates of 49.7 points, and the Eco Watchers Outlook fell from 49.4 points to 48.0 points. Investors also noted a significant decline in the seasonally adjusted balance of payments in December from 3352.5 billion yen to 1077.3 billion yen, which was worse than market expectations of 1362.0 billion yen. However, the yen continues to enjoy some support as a safe-haven currency given that markets are extremely concerned about a possible deterioration in global trading conditions. US President Donald Trump has imposed 25.0% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and has also announced retaliatory measures for all partners who impose duties on American goods, which was a completely expected step, since the politician had already resorted to it during his first presidential term. However, it can be noted that the restrictions are now more global in nature and more systemic, although some experts believe that this is only a tool of pressure in the upcoming negotiations.

The XAU/USD pair shows a moderate increase during the Asian session, testing 2915.00 for a breakout. The instrument retreated from new record highs, updated on Tuesday morning, located near the level of 2940.00. Market activity remains fairly high as traders remain concerned about Donald Trump's aggressive import tariff policies. In particular, a decree was signed introducing duties on steel and aluminum in the amount of 25.0% in addition to the existing ones. In his first term, the head of the White House also initiated similar tariffs: in 2018, 25.0% taxes were imposed on steel imports and 10.0% on aluminum from all countries except Canada and Mexico, which were later repealed. Then they were justified by issues of national security, but this time the politician referred to the creation of jobs and the reduction of the trade deficit. In addition, the American leader announced the introduction of retaliatory tariffs in the middle of this week in order to achieve a sustainable trade surplus with all key US partners. Today, at 17:00 (GMT+2), traders will pay attention to the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress, as well as other representatives of the American regulator, among whom we can note Michelle Bowman and John Williams. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2) January inflation statistics will be published, which may affect the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve: forecasts suggest a slowdown in the monthly dynamics of the Consumer Price Index from 0.4% to 0.3%, and in annual terms the indicator is expected to remain at the previous level of 2.9%, while Core CPI is likely to adjust from 3.2% to 3.1% in annual terms and from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.