Oil Keeps the Market Tense Ahead of Iran Decision

Oil remained firm as markets moved closer to Tuesday’s Iran deadline without any clear sign that the supply risk was easing. CL-OIL traded at 115.027, up 2.472 points or 2.20%, after touching a session high of 115.447. In the wider market, Brent rose 0.4% to $110.19 and WTI futures climbed 0.8% to $113.31. Traders were clearly not ready to scale back the premium while the outlook for energy flows remained uncertain.

The Strait of Hormuz has stayed at the centre of the market’s thinking, not because of rhetoric alone, but because the real issue is whether oil can move normally and safely. Recent weeks have brought enough partial relief headlines to show that calmer language does not automatically lead to more stable shipping conditions. Until there is greater confidence around actual flows, crude is likely to remain sensitive to any sign of delay or disruption.

A similar mood has carried across broader markets. MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan rose 0.4%, but the Nikkei slipped 0.2%, while US stock futures fell 0.55%. The dollar index held near 100.06, the euro traded at $1.1538, and USDJPY hovered around 159.91. The overall tone still looked defensive, with high oil prices keeping inflation concerns alive and making it harder for risk appetite to rebuild.

US services growth slowed in March, while business prices paid rose at the fastest pace in more than 13 years. Together, those figures offered an early sign that the conflict is feeding into costs beyond energy alone. At current levels, oil is affecting transport, logistics, chemicals and wider input prices, which helps explain why expectations for Fed cuts have become harder to rebuild.

Price remains well above the 5-day moving average at 107.97, the 10-day at 101.92, and the 20-day at 97.81, with all three continuing to trend higher. Support sits at 110.00, followed by 105.90 and 101.90, while resistance stands at 115.50, 119.40 and 124.70. As long as crude holds above the $110 area, the broader structure still points to strength rather than a deeper pullback.

Explore how Hormuz disruption continues to influence crude prices and market sentiment.