Week's main events (August 17 - August 21)

The ongoing geopolitical stalemate in US-Iran relations continues to capture the markets’ attention, driving volatility in energy prices and global interest rates amid mounting economic pressure from Washington. Investors are also focused on assessing the monetary policy outlook of major central banks ahead of the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes, which previously noted three dissenting opinions. Sentiment will be further influenced by a broad range of macroeconomic data, including S&P’s PMI business activity indices for the US, the eurozone, the UK, Japan, and Australia.

On the global stage, key events will include the release of inflation and retail sales data from the UK and Canada, as well as unemployment figures from those countries, Australia, and China. Meanwhile, Japan will release key statistics on second-quarter GDP, the trade balance, and inflation; China will publish data on industrial production, retail sales, and housing prices; and Germany and the eurozone will release the ZEW economic sentiment indices. Rounding out the week’s macroeconomic events will be US reports on industrial production, the trade balance, and building permits, as well as the Swedish Central Bank’s interest rate decision.

Monday, August 17
The early session brings a vital data bloc from China, featuring industrial production, retail sales, and the urban unemployment rate. These releases will offer a comprehensive read on the momentum of the world’s second-largest economy, specifically measuring whether consumer demand and industrial output are stabilizing or encountering structural friction. Concurrently, Japan’s preliminary GDP growth figures will provide a critical assessment of domestic economic health, helping markets gauge how well consumer spending and corporate activity are holding up against external pressures. Later in the day, attention shifts to Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Analysts will closely examine whether underlying disinflation remains on track or if persistent core pressures will complicate the Bank of Canada’s upcoming policy path. Rising inflationary pressures could provide support for the Canadian dollar (CAD).

Main events of the day:
- Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (HIGH)

Tuesday, August 18
On Tuesday, the European morning is headlined by a critical employment and wage package from the UK. Analysts will closely review the latest change in the claimant count, the unemployment rate, and the average earnings index to gauge whether lingering wage pressures are finally moderating. With wage growth historically a decisive factor in the Bank of England’s policy decisions, any unexpected stickiness in regular pay could influence expectations for future rate paths. Simultaneously, the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment index will provide an essential read on institutional investor confidence, tracking how financial markets perceive regional economic prospects amid ongoing global headwinds.

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Publication date:

17 August 2026 - 11:09 (GMT)

Wednesday, August 19
On Wednesday, the European morning is headlined by the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Eurozone inflation readings. With UK headline inflation previously easing to 2.6%, analysts will closely parse the latest report to see if energy and transport cost pressures continue to normalize or if underlying stickiness persists. Concurrently, Eurozone CPI and comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde will provide essential guidance on whether regional price growth remains on a sustainable path toward the central bank’s target, directly influencing the near-term trajectory of European indices and the euro. The release of the weekly US crude oil reserves report will dictate short-term momentum in energy markets, with the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes closely watched. Traders will thoroughly comb the minutes for deeper insights into the Federal Reserve’s internal debate over growth resilience and interest rate paths, which will serve as a primary catalyst for USD pairs and gold (XAU) volatility heading into the late-week stretch.

Thursday, August 20
The early session focuses on the Australian labor market, with the release of the July unemployment rate and employment change figures. Following previous prints hovering near 4.4%, analysts will closely evaluate whether job creation is maintaining its resilience or showing early signs of softening under the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) restrictive policy stance. Concurrently, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) will announce its latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR), providing vital guidance for regional equities as policymakers balance domestic growth support with financial stability risks. In Europe, attention shifts to Sweden for the Riksbank’s interest rate decision. Market participants will scrutinize the central bank’s policy statement and updated rate path projections to gauge how domestic disinflation and currency dynamics are influencing their easing cycle. No changes to current policy are expected in either case.

Friday, August 21
For Friday, the global financial markets close out the week with a massive, synchronized wave of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys from major economies, complemented by critical domestic inflation and retail sales metrics. The early session begins in the Asia-Pacific region with New Zealand trade data and Japan’s National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). Following a prior core inflation print of 1.6%, analysts will closely examine whether Japan’s price pressures continue the gradual upward trend toward the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Rising inflation could support the yen as the likelihood of an imminent rate hike increases. As the trading day transitions to Europe, attention centers on a heavy block of preliminary August PMI releases covering Germany, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom, alongside UK retail sales figures. With regional economies navigating persistent cost hurdles and uneven demand, these composite indices will serve as vital benchmarks for institutional investors assessing whether European business activity is stabilizing or contracting. The session concludes in North America with Canadian monthly retail sales data, followed closely by the US manufacturing and services PMI prints.

Main events of the day:
- New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3) – NZD (MED)
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
- Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (HIGH)
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – CAD (MED)
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)