Oil Firms as Ceasefire Fails to Restore Normal Flows

Oil started to rise again after the first relief move faded. CL-OIL traded at 97.607, up 1.137 points or 1.18%, after moving between 96.197 and 98.332. The earlier drop happened because traders reacted quickly to the ceasefire. The rebound shows the market now believes that a ceasefire alone is not enough to fix the supply problem.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained by security concerns, mine risks, high insurance costs and operational delays. In that setting, oil does not need a full shutdown to stay supported. Flows only need to remain patchy, slower and more expensive than normal for the market to keep pricing supply risk. That has made the initial drop in crude look too deep relative to the actual condition of the physical market.

Cargoes still require safe passage, insurers still need confidence before reducing premiums, and shipowners still need clearer evidence that routes can remain open without renewed disruption. Until those conditions improve in a more visible way, prices are unlikely to fall back as if the crisis has fully passed.

The difference between crude and liquefied natural gas is also becoming more visible. Some LNG cargoes appear closer to moving again if passage risk continues to ease, as vessels are already loaded and may be able to sail on shorter notice. Crude oil is recovering more slowly because high insurance costs, cautious shipowners and transport delays are still getting in the way. That means some parts of the energy market may improve sooner, while oil prices remain supported because traders still do not fully trust the recovery.

Current forecasts still point to Brent at 98.00 and WTI at 92.50 for the second quarter, which fits a market that has moved beyond panic but has not returned to normal.

Read more about how Hormuz shipping conditions are still shaping oil prices and why the market remains cautious on a full recovery.