X

ADP Employment Change

Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Most recent - Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15

Previous
291K
Revised
291K
Forecast
170K
Actual
278K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Wednesday 5 July 2023 12:15

Previous
278K
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for ADP Employment Change yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for ADP Employment Change was 278K against a forecast of 170K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 1 June 2023 12:15
170K
278K
Wednesday 3 May 2023 12:15
148K
296K
Wednesday 5 April 2023 12:15
200K
145K
Wednesday 8 March 2023 13:15
200K
242K
Wednesday 1 February 2023 13:15
178K
106K
Thursday 5 January 2023 13:15
150K
235K
Wednesday 30 November 2022 13:15
200K
127K
Wednesday 2 November 2022 12:15
195K
239K
Wednesday 5 October 2022 12:15
200K
208K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
288K
132K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
270K
Wednesday 31 August 2022 12:15
-
380K
Thursday 2 June 2022 12:15
300K
128K
Wednesday 4 May 2022 12:15
395K
247K
Wednesday 30 March 2022 12:15
450K
455K
Wednesday 2 March 2022 13:15
388K
475K
Wednesday 2 February 2022 13:15
207K
-301K
Wednesday 5 January 2022 13:15
400K
807K
Wednesday 1 December 2021 13:15
525K
534K
Wednesday 3 November 2021 12:15
400K
571K
Wednesday 6 October 2021 12:15
428K
568K
Wednesday 1 September 2021 12:15
613K
374K
Wednesday 4 August 2021 12:15
695K
330K
Wednesday 30 June 2021 12:15
600K
692K
Thursday 3 June 2021 12:15
650K
978K
Wednesday 5 May 2021 12:15
800K
742K
Wednesday 31 March 2021 12:15
550K
517K
Wednesday 3 March 2021 13:15
177K
117K
Wednesday 3 February 2021 13:15
49K
174K
Wednesday 6 January 2021 13:15
88K
-123K
Wednesday 2 December 2020 13:15
410K
307K
Wednesday 4 November 2020 13:15
650K
365K
Wednesday 30 September 2020 12:15
650K
749K
Wednesday 2 September 2020 12:15
950K
428K
Wednesday 5 August 2020 12:15
1500K
167K
Wednesday 1 July 2020 12:15
3000K
2369K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been strongly bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next ADP Employment Change result:

PreviousLatest
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change233K261K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBearish change229.75K237.25K
Goods and Services Trade BalanceBearish change$-60.6B$-74.6B
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change0.9%0.4%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.849.2
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change56.152.9
ISM Services PMIBearish change51.950.3
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change59.656.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.554.3
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.154.9
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change4.4%4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.6%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change294K339K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change6.6%6.7%
Unemployment RateBearish change3.4%3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change50.251.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change45.742.6
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.146.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change53.244.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change48.548.4
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change230K232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBullish change232K229.5K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change-2.7%-2.1%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change6.3%4.2%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change48.640.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.7%0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)Bearish change0.4%-1.1%

About ADP Employment Change

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:ADP Research Institute
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
 
Continue to site >