Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

Most recent - Friday 27 September 2024 12:30

Previous
0.2%
Revised
-
Forecast
0.2%
Actual
0.1%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) was 0.1% against a forecast of 0.2%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 27 September 2024 12:30
0.2%
0.1%
Friday 30 August 2024 12:30
0.2%
0.2%
Friday 26 July 2024 12:30
0.1%
0.2%
Friday 28 June 2024 12:30
0.1%
0.1%
Friday 31 May 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.2%
Friday 26 April 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Friday 29 March 2024 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Thursday 29 February 2024 13:30
0.4%
0.4%
Friday 26 January 2024 13:30
0.2%
0.2%
Friday 22 December 2023 13:30
0.2%
0.1%
Thursday 30 November 2023 13:30
0.2%
0.2%
Friday 27 October 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Friday 29 September 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.1%
Thursday 31 August 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.2%
Friday 28 July 2023 12:30
0.2%
0.2%
Friday 30 June 2023 12:30
0.4%
0.3%
Friday 26 May 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.4%
Friday 28 April 2023 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Friday 31 March 2023 12:30
0.4%
0.3%
Friday 24 February 2023 13:30
0.4%
0.6%
Friday 27 January 2023 13:30
0.2%
0.3%
Friday 23 December 2022 13:30
0.2%
0.2%
Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30
0.3%
0.2%
Friday 28 October 2022 12:30
0.5%
0.5%
Friday 30 September 2022 12:30
0.5%
0.6%
Friday 26 August 2022 12:30
0.3%
0.1%
Friday 29 July 2022 12:30
0.5%
0.6%
Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30
0.4%
0.3%
Friday 27 May 2022 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Friday 29 April 2022 12:30
0.3%
0.3%
Thursday 31 March 2022 12:30
0.4%
0.4%
Friday 25 February 2022 13:30
0.5%
0.5%
Friday 28 January 2022 13:30
0.5%
0.5%
Thursday 23 December 2021 13:30
0.4%
0.5%
Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00
0.4%
0.4%
Friday 29 October 2021 12:30
0.2%
0.2%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) result:

PreviousLatest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.9%4%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.7%62.7%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change159K254K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.9%7.7%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.2%4.1%
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change4.9%-0.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.248.1
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change5359.4
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.554.9
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change57.359.4
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.454
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change219K225K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change75.891K72.821K
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change103K143K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4643.9
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change44.646.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)47.247.2
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change5448.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.711M8.04M
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change46.146.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change6970.1
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.1%3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.5%2.2%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.5%0.2%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-5.5%0.6%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change9.9%0%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change10.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change-0.1%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)3%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)2.5%2.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.2%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change10.3%-4.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.1%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.654.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.947
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.755.4

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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