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Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

After publishing the GDP report, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data alongside the monthly changes in Personal Spending and Personal Income. FOMC policymakers use the annual Core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as their primary gauge of inflation. A stronger-than-expected reading could help the USD outperform its rivals as it would hint at a possible hawkish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance and vice versa.

Most recent - Friday 26 May 2023 12:30

Previous
4.6%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.6%
Actual
4.7%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 30 June 2023 12:30

Previous
4.7%
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) was 4.7% against a forecast of 4.6%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 26 May 2023 12:30
4.6%
4.7%
Friday 28 April 2023 12:30
4.5%
4.6%
Friday 31 March 2023 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 24 February 2023 13:30
4.3%
4.7%
Friday 27 January 2023 13:30
-
4.4%
Friday 23 December 2022 13:30
4.7%
4.7%
Thursday 1 December 2022 13:30
5%
5%
Friday 28 October 2022 12:30
5.2%
5.1%
Friday 30 September 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.9%
Friday 26 August 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 29 July 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.8%
Thursday 30 June 2022 12:30
4.7%
4.7%
Friday 27 May 2022 12:30
4.9%
4.9%
Friday 29 April 2022 12:30
5.3%
5.2%
Thursday 31 March 2022 12:30
5.5%
5.4%
Friday 25 February 2022 13:30
5.1%
5.2%
Friday 28 January 2022 13:30
4.8%
4.9%
Thursday 23 December 2021 13:30
4.5%
4.7%
Wednesday 24 November 2021 15:00
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 29 October 2021 12:30
3.7%
3.6%
Friday 1 October 2021 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 27 August 2021 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 30 July 2021 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 25 June 2021 12:30
3.4%
3.4%
Friday 28 May 2021 12:30
2.9%
3.1%
Friday 30 April 2021 12:30
1.8%
1.8%
Friday 26 March 2021 12:30
1.5%
1.4%
Friday 26 February 2021 13:30
1.4%
1.5%
Friday 29 January 2021 13:30
1.3%
1.5%
Wednesday 23 December 2020 13:30
1.5%
1.4%
Wednesday 25 November 2020 15:00
1.4%
1.4%
Friday 30 October 2020 12:30
1.7%
1.5%
Thursday 1 October 2020 12:30
1.4%
1.6%
Friday 28 August 2020 12:30
1.2%
1.3%
Friday 31 July 2020 12:30
1%
0.9%
Friday 26 June 2020 12:30
0.9%
1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been strongly bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) result:

PreviousLatest
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change233K261K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBearish change229.75K237.25K
Goods and Services Trade BalanceBearish change$-60.6B$-74.6B
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change0.9%0.4%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.849.2
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change56.152.9
ISM Services PMIBearish change51.950.3
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change59.656.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.554.3
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.154.9
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change4.4%4.3%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.6%62.6%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change294K339K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change6.6%6.7%
Unemployment RateBearish change3.4%3.7%
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change50.251.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change45.742.6
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.146.9
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change53.244.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change48.548.4
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change230K232K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBullish change232K229.5K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change-2.7%-2.1%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change6.3%4.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change291K278K
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change48.640.4
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.7%0.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)Bearish change0.4%-1.1%

About Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Economic Analysis
Category:Inflation
Frequency:Monthly

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