Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, on a quarterly basis. The publication summarizes policymakers' outlook for the federal funds rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. It is widely used as a guide to figure out the location of the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. Higher projected interest rates usually support the US Dollar, while lower projections weigh down on the USD.

Most recent - Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00

Previous
4.6%
Actual
3.9%

Next event - Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00

Previous
3.9%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

Trading range

Announcement history

The most recent announced value for Interest Rate Projections - 1st year was 3.9%.

Past events

Date
Actual
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
3.9%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
4.6%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.1%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
4.6%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
4.3%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.1%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
4.6%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
3.8%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
2.8%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
0.9%
Wednesday 22 September 2021 18:00
0.3%
Wednesday 16 June 2021 18:00
0.1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bullish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Interest Rate Projections - 1st year result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change79.477.9
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change2.8%3%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K211K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change1.6%2.1%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.1%2.4%
Monthly Budget StatementBullish change$-296B$-236B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.2%3.5%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(no change)3.8%3.8%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change4.3%4.1%
Labor Force Participation RateBullish change62.5%62.7%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change270K303K
U6 Underemployment Rate(no change)7.3%7.3%
Unemployment RateBullish change3.9%3.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change212K221K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change84.638K90.309K
ISM Services Employment IndexBullish change4848.5
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change56.154.4
ISM Services PMIBearish change52.651.4
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change58.653.4
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change52.252.1
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change155K184K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-3.8%1.4%
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change8.748M8.756M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change45.947.4
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change49.251.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.850.3
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change52.555.8

About Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Central Banks
Frequency:Irregular

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