Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot-plot, on a quarterly basis. The publication summarizes policymakers' outlook for the federal funds rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation. It is widely used as a guide to figure out the location of the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. Higher projected interest rates usually support the US Dollar, while lower projections weigh down on the USD.

Most recent - Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00

Previous
4.1%
Actual
3.4%

Next event - Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00

Previous
3.4%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

Trading range

Announcement history

The most recent announced value for Interest Rate Projections - 1st year was 3.4%.

Past events

Date
Actual
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
3.4%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
4.1%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
3.9%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
4.6%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.1%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
4.6%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
4.3%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.1%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
4.6%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
3.8%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
2.8%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
0.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Interest Rate Projections - 1st year result:

PreviousLatest
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change225K242K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.4%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change3.1%3.4%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$-257B$-367B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(no change)3.3%3.3%
Nonfarm Productivity(no change)2.2%2.2%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change1.9%0.8%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change71.874
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.2%3.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)(no change)0.4%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)(no change)4%4%
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.6%62.5%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change36K227K
U6 Underemployment RateBearish change7.7%7.8%
Unemployment RateBearish change4.1%4.2%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change215K224K
Challenger Job CutsBullish change55.597K57.727K
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-0.2%0.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change5351.5
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change57.453.7
ISM Services PMIBearish change5652.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change58.158.2
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change55.354.9
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change184K146K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.372M7.744M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change44.448.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change47.150.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change46.548.4
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change54.850.3

About Interest Rate Projections - 1st year

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Central Banks
Frequency:Irregular

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