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Unemployment

The Unemployment Rate released by the National Institute of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Italian economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Italian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening in the economy. Normally, a decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Most recent - Thursday 31 August 2023 08:00

Previous
7.4%
Revised
7.5%
Forecast
7.4%
Actual
7.6%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/EUR pairs and bearish for EUR/xxx pairs.

Next event - Monday 2 October 2023 08:00

Previous
7.6%
Forecast
7.7%
Actual
-

The typical/expected market impact of this event is low.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment is 7.7%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/EUR pairs and bearish for EUR/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment was 7.6% against a forecast of 7.4%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 31 August 2023 08:00
7.4%
7.6%
Tuesday 1 August 2023 08:00
7.7%
7.4%
Friday 30 June 2023 08:00
7.9%
7.6%
Thursday 1 June 2023 08:00
7.8%
7.8%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 08:00
8%
7.8%
Thursday 30 March 2023 08:00
8%
8%
Thursday 2 March 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.9%
Tuesday 31 January 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.8%
Monday 9 January 2023 09:00
7.8%
7.8%
Thursday 1 December 2022 09:00
8%
7.8%
Thursday 3 November 2022 09:00
7.8%
7.9%
Friday 30 September 2022 08:00
7.9%
7.8%
Thursday 1 September 2022 08:00
8.1%
7.9%
Monday 1 August 2022 08:00
8.1%
8.1%
Thursday 30 June 2022 08:00
8.4%
8.1%
Wednesday 1 June 2022 08:00
8.3%
8.4%
Monday 2 May 2022 08:00
8.4%
8.3%
Thursday 31 March 2022 08:00
8.7%
8.5%
Thursday 3 March 2022 09:00
-
8.8%
Tuesday 1 February 2022 09:00
-
9%
Monday 10 January 2022 09:00
9.3%
9.2%
Thursday 2 December 2021 09:00
9.1%
9.4%
Wednesday 3 November 2021 09:00
9.2%
9.2%
Thursday 30 September 2021 08:00
9.2%
9.3%
Wednesday 1 September 2021 08:00
9.7%
9.3%
Friday 30 July 2021 07:00
10.4%
9.7%
Thursday 1 July 2021 08:00
10.8%
10.5%
Tuesday 1 June 2021 08:00
10.1%
10.7%
Friday 30 April 2021 07:00
9.6%
10.1%
Tuesday 6 April 2021 08:00
9%
10.2%
Monday 1 February 2021 09:00
8.8%
9%
Friday 8 January 2021 10:00
9.7%
8.9%
Wednesday 2 December 2020 09:00
9.9%
9.8%
Friday 30 October 2020 08:00
10.1%
9.6%
Thursday 1 October 2020 08:00
10.1%
9.7%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for EUR. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment result:

PreviousLatest
Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)Bullish change5.5%5.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change5.4%5.3%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change5.3%4.5%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change5.2%4.3%
Unemployment ChangeBullish change18K10K
Unemployment Rate s.a.(no change)5.7%5.7%
Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)Bearish change5.7%5.6%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change-0.8%-1.2%
Retail Sales (YoY)Bearish change-2.2%-2.3%
Consumer Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change6.1%4.5%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bearish change6.4%4.3%
Business ClimateBearish change-0.33-0.36
Consumer Confidence(no change)-17.8-17.8
Economic Sentiment Indicator(no change)93.393.3
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)Bullish change2.4%3.2%
Gfk Consumer Confidence SurveyBearish change-25.5-26.5
IFO – Business Climate(no change)85.785.7
IFO – Current AssessmentBearish change8988.7
IFO – ExpectationsBullish change82.682.9
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change46.747.1
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change43.543.4
HCOB Services PMIBullish change47.948.4
HCOB Composite PMIBullish change44.646.2
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBullish change39.139.8
HCOB Services PMIBullish change47.349.8
HCOB Composite PMIBearish change4643.5
HCOB Manufacturing PMIBearish change4643.6
HCOB Services PMIBearish change4643.9
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)Bearish change0.6%0.5%
Consumer ConfidenceBearish change-16-17.8
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-1.1%0.3%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change-6%-12.6%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)(no change)0.3%0.3%
Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)(no change)5.3%5.3%
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0.5%

About Unemployment

Country:Italy
Currency:EUR
Source:ISTAT
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
 
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