The Week Ahead: 17th – 22nd June 2024
Now What?
As we step into the week of June 17 – June 22, 2024, the financial markets are bracing for impactful events, including central bank decisions and key economic data releases. Central banks like the RBA, SNB, and BoE will announce their rate decisions, affecting currencies such as AUD, CHF, and GBP, and commodities like gold, crude oil, and natural gas. These decisions could lead to significant market movements based on whether the banks maintain or adjust their current rates.
As we step into the week of June 17 – June 22, 2024, the financial markets are bracing for impactful events, including central bank decisions and key economic data releases. Central banks like the RBA, SNB, and BoE will announce their rate decisions, affecting currencies such as AUD, CHF, and GBP, and commodities like gold, crude oil, and natural gas. These decisions could lead to significant market movements based on whether the banks maintain or adjust their current rates.
Key US economic data releases will include the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday, Core Retail Sales on Tuesday, and Unemployment Claims on Thursday. These indicators will provide insights into the US economy’s health, influencing USD pairs, equity markets, and commodities. Traders should monitor these releases for signs of economic strength or weakness and their implications for Federal Reserve policy.
Global economic indicators will also be critical, with UK CPI data on Wednesday, New Zealand’s GDP on Thursday, and Eurozone PMIs on Friday. These data points will impact forex pairs and commodities associated with these regions.
Additionally, the Eid al-Adha holidays from Monday to Wednesday could reduce market liquidity and increase volatility, particularly in oil markets, as key markets in Muslim-majority countries will be closed.
Market Events and Announcements
The times below are GMT +3.
The times below are GMT +3.
Monday, 17th June 2024:
15:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD): Expected to reflect current manufacturing conditions in New York State, previously at -15.6.
15:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD): Expected to reflect current manufacturing conditions in New York State, previously at -15.6.
Tuesday, 18th June 2024:
07:30 – Cash Rate (AUD): Current rate at 4.35%, decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
07:30 – RBA Rate Statement (AUD): Insight into the RBA’s monetary policy stance.
15:30 – Core Retail Sales m/m (USD): Indicator of consumer spending, previously at 0.2%.
15:30 – Retail Sales m/m (USD): Reflecting total sales at the retail level, previously flat at 0.0%.
07:30 – Cash Rate (AUD): Current rate at 4.35%, decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
07:30 – RBA Rate Statement (AUD): Insight into the RBA’s monetary policy stance.
15:30 – Core Retail Sales m/m (USD): Indicator of consumer spending, previously at 0.2%.
15:30 – Retail Sales m/m (USD): Reflecting total sales at the retail level, previously flat at 0.0%.
Wednesday, 19th June 2024:
09:00 – CPI y/y (GBP): Measures inflation, previously at 2.3%.
09:00 – CPI y/y (GBP): Measures inflation, previously at 2.3%.
Thursday, 20th June 2024:
01:45 – GDP q/q (NZD): Quarterly GDP growth rate, previously at -0.1%.
10:30 – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF): Swiss National Bank’s review of monetary policy.
10:30 – SNB Policy Rate (CHF): Current rate at 1.50%.
11:00 – SNB Press Conference (CHF): Further insights into the SNB’s policy decisions.
14:00 – Monetary Policy Summary (GBP): Overview of the Bank of England’s policy decisions.
14:00 – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (GBP): Voting pattern for interest rate decisions.
14:00 – Official Bank Rate (GBP): Current rate at 5.25%.
15:30 – Unemployment Claims (USD): Weekly jobless claims, previously at 242K.
01:45 – GDP q/q (NZD): Quarterly GDP growth rate, previously at -0.1%.
10:30 – SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CHF): Swiss National Bank’s review of monetary policy.
10:30 – SNB Policy Rate (CHF): Current rate at 1.50%.
11:00 – SNB Press Conference (CHF): Further insights into the SNB’s policy decisions.
14:00 – Monetary Policy Summary (GBP): Overview of the Bank of England’s policy decisions.
14:00 – MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (GBP): Voting pattern for interest rate decisions.
14:00 – Official Bank Rate (GBP): Current rate at 5.25%.
15:30 – Unemployment Claims (USD): Weekly jobless claims, previously at 242K.
Friday, 21st June 2024:
09:00 – Retail Sales m/m (GBP): Measures consumer spending, previously at -2.3%.
10:15 – French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Indicator of manufacturing activity, previously at 46.4.
10:15 – French Flash Services PMI (EUR): Indicator of services activity, previously at 49.3.
10:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Key measure of manufacturing health, previously at 45.4.
10:30 – German Flash Services PMI (EUR): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 54.2.
11:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP): Indicator of UK manufacturing health, previously at 51.2.
11:30 – Flash Services PMI (GBP): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 52.9.
16:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD): Indicator of US manufacturing activity, previously at 51.3.
16:45 – Flash Services PMI (USD): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 54.8.
09:00 – Retail Sales m/m (GBP): Measures consumer spending, previously at -2.3%.
10:15 – French Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Indicator of manufacturing activity, previously at 46.4.
10:15 – French Flash Services PMI (EUR): Indicator of services activity, previously at 49.3.
10:30 – German Flash Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Key measure of manufacturing health, previously at 45.4.
10:30 – German Flash Services PMI (EUR): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 54.2.
11:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI (GBP): Indicator of UK manufacturing health, previously at 51.2.
11:30 – Flash Services PMI (GBP): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 52.9.
16:45 – Flash Manufacturing PMI (USD): Indicator of US manufacturing activity, previously at 51.3.
16:45 – Flash Services PMI (USD): Reflects services sector activity, previously at 54.8.
Market Insights: Key Charts to Watch
GBP/USD Weekly Chart:
Since March 6, 2023, the GBP/USD pair has formed a symmetrical triangle compression pattern. Over the past three weeks, it has been fluctuating near the top of this pattern around the critical resistance zone of 1.28600.
GBP/USD Weekly Chart:
Since March 6, 2023, the GBP/USD pair has formed a symmetrical triangle compression pattern. Over the past three weeks, it has been fluctuating near the top of this pattern around the critical resistance zone of 1.28600.
Impact of BoE Meeting:
The upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting is expected to significantly influence this pair. The market anticipates that the BoE will maintain the interest rate at 5.25%. However, signals indicating an earlier-than-expected rate cut later in 2024 could weaken the pound, leading to a stronger bearish reversal from the pattern’s top.
The upcoming Bank of England (BoE) meeting is expected to significantly influence this pair. The market anticipates that the BoE will maintain the interest rate at 5.25%. However, signals indicating an earlier-than-expected rate cut later in 2024 could weaken the pound, leading to a stronger bearish reversal from the pattern’s top.
Key Levels:
The support at the bottom of the pattern is around 1.22992. Should the BoE convey a hawkish tone, advocating for continued high rates, the resistance level to watch is the recent high of 1.28604.
The support at the bottom of the pattern is around 1.22992. Should the BoE convey a hawkish tone, advocating for continued high rates, the resistance level to watch is the recent high of 1.28604.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart:
The US Dollar Index has been trading within a compression triangle pattern on the weekly chart since October 2023. The outlook for sustained high-interest rates has propelled the index from the pattern’s bottom at 104.080, now breaking through the critical resistance of 105.184 and moving towards the higher ceiling of 106.490.
The US Dollar Index has been trading within a compression triangle pattern on the weekly chart since October 2023. The outlook for sustained high-interest rates has propelled the index from the pattern’s bottom at 104.080, now breaking through the critical resistance of 105.184 and moving towards the higher ceiling of 106.490.
Interest Rate Influence:
The anticipation of continued high-interest rates in the US has supported the DXY, reinforcing its upward trajectory. The breakout above 105.184 indicates strong bullish sentiment, with the next resistance target at 106.490.
The anticipation of continued high-interest rates in the US has supported the DXY, reinforcing its upward trajectory. The breakout above 105.184 indicates strong bullish sentiment, with the next resistance target at 106.490.
Key Levels:
Should market sentiment shift, the key support level to monitor is at 104.080. A break below this level could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
Should market sentiment shift, the key support level to monitor is at 104.080. A break below this level could signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
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