Dow Jones & Gold: What’s Driving the Rebound

By Michalis Efthymiou - October 12, 2026

Gold and the stock market are declining after originally increasing during this week’s market open. The u-turn comes as the US Dollar and Oil prices rebound. The recent key drivers are Russia and Ukraine’s energy ceasefire and also the tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. However, markets expect more volatility and greater clarity following the release of US consumer and producer inflation data later this week.

This week will also see the start of earnings season, with major US banks making their earnings reports public. So far, the Dow Jones is the best-performing US index, while the NASDAQ is witnessing the strongest decline.

Dow Jones - Earnings & Inflation
The Dow Jones rose 0.35% during this morning’s opening hours, rising to its highest level since 25 September. The upward price movement potentially may have been due to the better market conditions, including the weaker Dollar, lower oil prices, and the decline amongst bond yields. Investors may have also been continuing last week’s trend as the market gets ready for this week’s earnings data.

However, as the European open edges closer, the positive market conditions are fading. The US Dollar’s decline has come to a halt, and oil prices have risen 2%. For this reason, markets are becoming cautious, but the VIX index remains 1% lower, maintaining a ‘risk-on’ sentiment.

The main market pressures are currently coming from high bond yields and the Middle East. The geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and the risk of Houthi disruptions to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a key oil shipping route, remain in the spotlight. Meanwhile, easing Fed hawkishness, stabilising inflation, and signs of economic cooling weigh on prices. Currently, 82.8% of the market believes rates will remain unchanged in October. This is likely to remain the case unless inflation rises higher than the current expectations.

For this reason, this week’s events will be vital in determining how the index will move in the upcoming days. Markets expect the US inflation rate to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%. If the inflation rate rises above this level, the Dow Jones can come under pressure, particularly if oil prices also remain above $90. However, if inflation does not rise to 3.6%, the Dow Jones may continue to rebound higher. The possible rebound will be particularly strong if supported by positive earnings data.

Goldman Sachs Earnings Report
The Dow Jones will be strongly influenced by the earnings reports of Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan. However, the strongest driver will be the earnings report from Goldman Sachs. Currently, Goldman Sachs stock is the most influential for the index as it holds a weight of more than 10%. This year, the stock has risen almost 6%.

Analysts expect earnings per share of approximately $12.90 and revenue of $16.87 billion, representing an estimated 11.1% annual revenue increase. The bank is expected to benefit from stronger investment banking activity, particularly mergers and acquisitions, corporate advisory services, and underwriting. However, trading revenues could face seasonal pressure following an exceptionally strong second quarter, while rising operating expenses may weigh on profitability.

The fundamental outlook for Goldman Sachs remains cautiously positive, supported by continued demand for investment banking services and corporate transactions. The bank has exceeded earnings expectations for four consecutive quarters, increasing expectations for another positive surprise. However, tomorrow's market reaction will depend not only on whether earnings exceed forecasts but also on trading performance, cost management, and management's outlook for Q4.

If Goldman Sachs shares increase in value after tomorrow’s earnings release, the Dow Jones can also find major support. However, the upward price movement will also depend on the US Consumer Price Index as well as the less important earnings reports.

Will Gold’s Rebound Continue?
Gold, which has been struggling since late August, rose in value at the end of last week, taking the price to a key resistance level. The increase was partly driven by investors taking advantage of lower prices following Wednesday’s sharp decline. Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October provided further support. So far this morning, the price has seen an impulse wave in both directions.

In the medium term, the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index will help determine Gold's price action. Whereas, in the short term (Monday alone), markets will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, bond yields, oil prices, and the US Dollar. If the US Dollar Index remains above 102.00 and bond yields record a daily gain, Gold will struggle to maintain bullish momentum. In the medium term, higher inflation rates could result in an October rate hike and potentially weaken Gold prices.

Key Takeaways:
- Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: Prospects of a ceasefire remain a key factor influencing global market sentiment.
- Corporate Earnings: Upcoming earnings reports could drive stock market volatility and influence investor confidence.
- Fed & Inflation: Stabilising inflation strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October.
- Middle East Tensions: Escalating geopolitical tensions raise concerns over oil supply disruptions and increased market uncertainty.