Oil Slides and Stocks Gain as US-Iran Deal Boosts Risk Appetite

The market turns risk-on as the US reaches a temporary deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal ends all hostilities and will see the Strait allow shipping through from the 19 June onwards. Market risk appetite was quick to significantly rise at the opening of the Asian Session on Monday.

The key price movement that all investors were hoping to see was the decline in oil prices. All energy-based products fell with a large price gap. However, the key movement was Crude oil which fell more than 5% and Brent oil, which fell 4.45%. This had a key impact on the US Dollar, Gold, and the stock market.

Crude Oil Fall to 3-Month Low
On Trump’s 80th birthday, the White House announced the peace deal which markets had long been awaiting. Crude oil was already falling last week, and fresh selling pressure is now pushing prices to a three-month low. The US and Iran are expected to sign the agreement on Friday, allowing for the reopening of the Strait. According to the White House, authorities will use the following four days to clear mines from the shipping route and restore safe passage through the strait.

20% of the world’s oil exports pass through the straits, but according to reports, this figure will fall to 15% from now onwards. In addition to this, the strain on supply is likely to remain for a minimum of 12 months. For this reason, investors do not expect the price of Crude Oil to fall to $55 per barrel. However, traders expect prices to fall further in the coming weeks, provided geopolitical tensions do not escalate again.

In the medium term, price action indicates a potential decline to $74.95 per barrel, which was the price on the day the US and Israel struck Iran. However, economists advise that, for inflation to decline, oil prices must fall below $70 per barrel at a minimum.

NASDAQ - SpaceX Rises
The US stock market saw significant gains during this morning’s Asian session on the news of the deal being reached with Iran. In addition to this, the NASDAQ was particularly in demand due to SpaceX’s positive performance on Friday and during this morning’s pre-market trading.

The NASDAQ is obtaining key bullish signals from multiple tools and indicators. All global indices are trading higher this morning, while the VIX falls more than 5%. In addition to this, the put-call ratio falls below its two-month high, while bond yields fall by 40 basis points. All these factors support the NASDAQ, which is witnessing 85% of its components rising this morning.

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Publication date:

15 June 2026 - 10:51 (GMT)

A key factor for the NASDAQ to continue performing well is for inflation to come under pressure and the Federal Reserve’s policy to remain neutral. The Chicago exchange rate expectations now sees the chance of a pause at 46%, up from 28% a week ago. If the possibility of a pause rises, the NASDAQ may find further support.

Lastly, SpaceX began trading on the Nasdaq on 12 June 2026, but is not yet a component of the NASDAQ 100. Nasdaq recently changed its rules to allow very large IPOs to enter the Nasdaq-100 after as little as 15 trading days, instead of waiting several months. Many analysts expect the stock to be added in the near future.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp rose 19% on its first day of trading and has also risen a further 5% during this morning’s Asian session.

Gold and the US Dollar
The US Dollar is under pressure as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran make significant progress. The US Dollar is this morning’s worst-performing currency.

Investor sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump reportedly cancelled planned strikes on Iranian infrastructure, and thereafter confirmed that an agreement had been made. The proposed deal would reportedly secure the reopening of key shipping routes through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. It would also include Iran’s commitment to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions.

For financial markets, these developments reduced concerns over a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions to global energy supplies. As geopolitical risks eased, investors reduced their demand for the US Dollar, triggering profit-taking and contributing to the currency’s decline. However, this saw Gold rebound as investors took advantage of the weakening Dollar and Gold’s low entry levels.

Key Takeaway:
- Markets turned risk-on after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities.
- Oil prices fell sharply, with Crude oil dropping more than 5% and Brent oil declining 4.45%, easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.
- The NASDAQ rallied, supported by lower volatility, falling bond yields, improving Fed pause expectations, and strong gains in SpaceX shares.
- The US Dollar weakened significantly as investors reduced safe-haven positions following the diplomatic breakthrough.
- Gold rebounded from recent lows, benefiting from the weaker Dollar despite improving market sentiment.