Dollar Firms Despite Trade Uncertainty | 24th February, 2026
Dollar Up, Gold Eases
Markets opened the week with the US Dollar showing resilience, advancing across major currency pairs despite lingering trade uncertainties. Gold eased slightly from recent highs as investors reassessed safe-haven demand amid firming Dollar flows. Traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data, with risk appetite muted and commodity-linked currencies showing mixed performance.
Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
Gold retreats slightly from its recent monthly peak, currently trading below $1,950. The move reflects modest USD strength, which is weighing on safe-haven demand, while investors await key US macro data for fresh directional cues.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Lingering global tensions provide intermittent support.
US Economic Data: Anticipated US CPI keeps positioning cautious.
FOMC Outcome: Markets await signals on the pace of future rate moves.
Trade Policy: Tariff concerns are present but have muted immediate effect.
Monetary Policy: Dollar resilience limits upside momentum for gold.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Mild bearish correction from monthly highs.
Resistance: $1,960
Support: $1,925
Forecast: Gold may consolidate near current levels unless USD weakens.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral with defensive positioning easing.
Catalysts: US CPI, FOMC commentary, geopolitical headlines.
USD/CHF Forecast
Current Price and Context
USD/CHF edges higher to near 0.7760 as the Dollar maintains firmness despite trade policy uncertainty. Trading remains cautious ahead of upcoming US economic releases.
Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US CPI, CHF liquidity movements.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) Forecast
Current Price and Context
NZD/USD drifts above 0.5950 as trade uncertainty supports cautious positioning. The pair remains sensitive to US macro releases and regional economic updates.
Monetary Policy: Diverging RBNZ-Fed outlooks shape the pair.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Mild bullish bias.
Resistance: 0.5980
Support: 0.5920
Forecast: NZD/USD may consolidate until US data provides clarity.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral with selective risk appetite.
Catalysts: US CPI, Fed commentary, trade headlines.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
Current Price and Context
The US Dollar Index hovers near 98.00 as the Dollar remains firm against major currencies. Market positioning is cautious amid trade uncertainty and upcoming US data releases.
Key Drivers
Geopolitical Risks: Global tensions provide mild safe-haven support.
US Economic Data: CPI and inflation readings will guide Dollar flows.
FOMC Outcome: Fed tone remains central to USD strength.
Forecast: USD/CAD may remain range-bound until US data and oil market developments provide clarity.
Sentiment and Catalysts
Market Sentiment: Neutral, with cautious positioning.
Catalysts: US CPI, oil price movement, FOMC minutes.
Wrap-Up
Overall, the Dollar’s firmness continues to shape early-week market sentiment, keeping Gold under pressure while commodity currencies display selective gains and losses. Trade uncertainty remains a background factor, but market attention is increasingly focused on upcoming economic releases that could influence Fed expectations and FX positioning. Near-term movements are likely to remain sensitive to Dollar strength, geopolitical developments, and risk sentiment shifts.
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