Forex market analysis: 11 April 2025
Gold extended its sharp upward trajectory on Thursday, rising over 1% intraday to reach $3,116.46, as a worsening trade war between the U.S. and China sent traders rushing back into the precious metal.
Gold Surges Past $3,100 as Tariff War Escalates
The move follows a more than 3% surge from the previous session, with XAU/USD rebounding from a low of $2,971.18 to decisively break the $3,100 resistance level.
The move follows a more than 3% surge from the previous session, with XAU/USD rebounding from a low of $2,971.18 to decisively break the $3,100 resistance level.
The catalyst: A fresh volley of tariff escalations. President Donald Trump raised duties on Chinese imports to 125%, just hours after Beijing hiked its own tariffs to 84% on U.S. goods. Though Washington simultaneously announced a 90-day reduction of tariffs to 10% for most trade partners, the sudden hardening of its stance on China overshadowed any diplomatic thaw.
Technical Analysis
The 15-minute chart reflects a clean bullish structure. Price broke out above the previous resistance at $3,100, supported by a clear MACD crossover and bullish histogram momentum. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned in an uptrend, confirming strong directional bias. The next short-term resistance may emerge near $3,120–$3,125, while support now lies at $3,060 and $3,002, the latter being a critical psychological floor from earlier in the week.
The 15-minute chart reflects a clean bullish structure. Price broke out above the previous resistance at $3,100, supported by a clear MACD crossover and bullish histogram momentum. Moving averages (5, 10, 30) are aligned in an uptrend, confirming strong directional bias. The next short-term resistance may emerge near $3,120–$3,125, while support now lies at $3,060 and $3,002, the latter being a critical psychological floor from earlier in the week.
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Picture: Gold pushes to fresh highs as 3,100 gives way with strong follow-through, as seen on the VT Markets app
Picture: Gold pushes to fresh highs as 3,100 gives way with strong follow-through, as seen on the VT Markets app
The breakout marks a continuation of gold’s impressive run, suggesting bulls remain in control, especially with macroeconomic uncertainty growing.
Macro Drivers: Inflation, Trade and Flow Support
Beyond geopolitics, traders are processing the FOMC minutes, which revealed near-unanimous concern over persistent inflation and weakening growth. With interest rate path expectations now heavily dependent on upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI figures, markets are already pricing in a dovish tilt by mid-year.
Beyond geopolitics, traders are processing the FOMC minutes, which revealed near-unanimous concern over persistent inflation and weakening growth. With interest rate path expectations now heavily dependent on upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI figures, markets are already pricing in a dovish tilt by mid-year.
Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported inflows of 226.5 metric tons into gold-backed ETFs during Q1 – equivalent to $21.1 billion in value. This surge in institutional demand underscores gold’s appeal not only as a defensive asset, but also as a strategic allocation in portfolios seeking protection from rate volatility and systemic shocks.
Cautious ForecastIf Friday’s inflation data surprises to the upside, the Fed may remain cautious, and gold could face some short-term profit-taking. However, with real yields under pressure and risk-off flows accelerating, the broader path for gold remains to the upside. Traders should monitor the $3,120–$3,150 band for resistance, while dips back to $3,060 or $3,000 may offer fresh entry opportunities in an increasingly unstable macro climate.
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