Why US Natural Gas Is Still Weak Despite Hormuz Tensions

US natural gas has attempted to stabilise, but the broader market tone still looks soft. NG-C traded at 2.893, up 0.035 points or 1.22%, while broader pricing remained around $2.84 to $2.89 per MMBtu. Even with that small rebound, futures are still hovering close to their weakest levels since August 2025, which shows how little conviction there has been behind any recovery.

The main reason remains domestic balance. Mild spring weather has reduced heating demand just as the market moves out of winter and into refill season. That shift has kept the supply-demand picture loose enough to outweigh much of the support that might normally come from geopolitical tension. In other words, the market still looks more influenced by soft demand and comfortable supply than by war-related risk.

The latest EIA storage report showed that supply is still running ahead of demand. For the week ending March 27, gas in storage rose by 36 Bcf, taking total inventories to 1,865 Bcf. Normally, storage would still be falling at this time of year. The five-year average for the same week shows a 4 Bcf withdrawal instead. Since inventories are rising earlier than usual, the market still looks well supplied, which helps explain why prices have had trouble moving higher.

Geopolitical risk has not disappeared, but its effect on US gas has been more limited than in oil. Trump warned that the US could strike Iranian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, and that has kept oil and global LNG markets under pressure. Henry Hub, however, reacts differently. Oil is directly exposed to disruption in Hormuz. US natural gas is far less exposed because domestic production remains strong and LNG export terminals are already operating close to practical limits. That means a global gas shock may lift sentiment, but it does not automatically translate into a major increase in US export demand.

That export ceiling is an important reason the market has remained grounded. A disruption in Hormuz threatens a large share of global crude, product and LNG flows, which can lift international gas prices. US natural gas does not capture that upside in the same way when liquefaction capacity is already near full use. Without a meaningful new export outlet, stronger overseas demand cannot feed through into the kind of runaway move seen in crude. Domestic weather, storage and production still matter more than global fear.

The technical picture remains weak as well. Natural gas has fallen sharply from the earlier 5.69 peak and is now trading near 2.89, only slightly above the recent 2.83 to 2.84 lows.

Read more about why domestic fundamentals are keeping natural gas weak even as wider energy markets stay on edge.