Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
4.5%

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 30 July 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 June 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 7 May 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBullish change4.5%4.9%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change3.4%3.9%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change57.757.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change61.758.6
Industrial Production (MoM)Bearish change0.4%-0.1%
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBullish change5.511.9
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.9%0.5%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change0.8%0.5%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change0.8%0.3%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change227K224K
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.9%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.4%3.3%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0%0.9%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.6%3.7%
Monthly Budget StatementBearish change$27B$-291B
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)(no change)2.7%2.7%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.9%3.1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change218K226K
Nonfarm ProductivityBullish change-1.8%2.4%
Unit Labor CostsBearish change6.9%1.6%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change47.246.4
ISM Services New Orders IndexBearish change51.350.3
ISM Services PMIBearish change50.850.1
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change67.569.9
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change54.655.1

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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