Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00

Previous
5.5%
Forecast
5.25%
Actual
5%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 5% against a forecast of 5.25%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
Wednesday 27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%
Wednesday 4 May 2022 18:00
1%
1%
Wednesday 16 March 2022 18:00
0.5%
0.5%
Wednesday 26 January 2022 19:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 15 December 2021 19:00
0.25%
0.25%
Wednesday 3 November 2021 18:00
0.25%
0.25%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bullish change3.9%4%
Labor Force Participation Rate(no change)62.7%62.7%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change159K254K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.9%7.7%
Unemployment RateBullish change4.2%4.1%
Factory Orders (MoM)Bearish change4.9%-0.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.248.1
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change5359.4
ISM Services PMIBullish change51.554.9
ISM Services Prices PaidBullish change57.359.4
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.454
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change219K225K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change75.891K72.821K
ADP Employment ChangeBullish change103K143K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change4643.9
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change44.646.1
ISM Manufacturing PMI(no change)47.247.2
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change5448.3
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.711M8.04M
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBullish change46.146.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change6970.1
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)3.1%3.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.5%2.2%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.2%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.5%0.2%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-5.5%0.6%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)2.8%2.8%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change9.9%0%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change10.3%-0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change-0.1%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)3%3%
Gross Domestic Product Price Index(no change)2.5%2.5%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change222K218K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.2%0.2%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change10.3%-4.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0%0.1%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change54.654.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBearish change47.947
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change55.755.4

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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