Fed Interest Rate Decision

The US Federal Reserve has a policy meeting every five to eight weeks, and its single most significant decision is interest rates. A rise is taken to mean a healthy economy, and is bullish for USD. A rate cut sends the opposite signal. If the rate is left unchanged, the market can still be significantly removed by remarks during the subsequent FOMC Press Conference, starting 30 minutes after the rate announcement.

Most recent - Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00

Previous
4.5%
Forecast
4.5%
Actual
4.5%

Next event - Wednesday 7 May 2025 18:00

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Fed Interest Rate Decision yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Fed Interest Rate Decision was 4.5% against a forecast of 4.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Wednesday 19 March 2025 18:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 29 January 2025 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 18 December 2024 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Thursday 7 November 2024 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 18 September 2024 18:00
5.25%
5%
Wednesday 31 July 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 12 June 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 May 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 March 2024 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 31 January 2024 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 13 December 2023 19:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 1 November 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 20 September 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 26 July 2023 18:00
5.5%
5.5%
Wednesday 14 June 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 3 May 2023 18:00
5.25%
5.25%
Wednesday 22 March 2023 18:00
5%
5%
Wednesday 1 February 2023 19:00
4.75%
4.75%
Wednesday 14 December 2022 19:00
4.5%
4.5%
Wednesday 2 November 2022 18:00
4%
4%
Wednesday 21 September 2022 18:00
3.25%
3.25%
Wednesday 27 July 2022 18:00
2.5%
2.5%
Wednesday 15 June 2022 18:00
1.5%
1.75%
Wednesday 4 May 2022 18:00
1%
1%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Fed Interest Rate Decision result:

PreviousLatest
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.5%0%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3%2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.7%2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.7%0.5%
Personal SpendingBullish change0.4%0.7%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change2.1%6.1%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change47.644.6
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2.6%3.5%
Employment Cost Index(no change)0.9%0.9%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change2.4%-0.3%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change2.3%3.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change2.4%3.6%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change147K62K
JOLTS Job OpeningsBearish change7.48M7.192M
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.3%0.1%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change50.852.2
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)4.4%4.4%
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBullish change47.247.3
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change6.7%6.5%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change4.4%-5.9%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change0.9%9.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change0.8%10.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.7%0%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change216K222K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.3%0.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change3.1%7.4%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change53.551.2
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change50.250.7
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change54.451.4
Building Permits (MoM)Bullish change1.459M1.482M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bearish change1.494M1.324M
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change224K215K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change12.5-26.4

About Fed Interest Rate Decision

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:Federal Reserve
Category:Interest Rates
Frequency:Weekly/week-based
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