Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Most recent - Friday 3 May 2024 12:30

Previous
315K
Revised
315K
Forecast
243K
Actual
175K

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Friday 7 June 2024 12:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Nonfarm Payrolls yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 175K against a forecast of 243K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
243K
175K
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
200K
303K
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
200K
275K
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
180K
353K
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
170K
216K
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
180K
199K
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
180K
150K
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
170K
336K
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
170K
187K
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
200K
187K
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
225K
209K
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
190K
339K
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
179K
253K
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
240K
236K
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
750K
235K
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
870K
943K
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
700K
850K
Friday 4 June 2021 12:30
650K
559K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change67.469.1
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3.1%3%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change0.8%0.7%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change1.2%0%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0%0.4%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.1%0.3%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change5.4%-4.7%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change51.354.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change5050.9
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change51.354.8
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change223K215K
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-3.7%-1.9%
Industrial Production (MoM)Bearish change0.1%0%
Building Permits (MoM)Bearish change1.467M1.44M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.287M1.36M
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change232K222K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change15.54.5
Consumer Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Consumer Price Index (YoY)Bearish change3.5%3.4%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.3%
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change3.8%3.6%
NY Empire State Manufacturing IndexBearish change-14.3-15.6
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.6%0%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change1%-0.3%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change0.9%0.2%
Producer Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.5%
Producer Price Index (YoY)Bullish change1.8%2.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bullish change2.1%2.4%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.5%

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday

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