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Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Most recent - Friday 1 September 2023 12:30

Previous
187K
Revised
157K
Forecast
170K
Actual
187K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 6 October 2023 12:30

Previous
187K
Forecast
170K
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is 170K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 187K against a forecast of 170K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
170K
187K
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
200K
187K
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
225K
209K
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
190K
339K
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
179K
253K
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
240K
236K
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
750K
235K
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
870K
943K
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
700K
850K
Friday 4 June 2021 12:30
650K
559K
Friday 7 May 2021 12:30
978K
266K
Friday 2 April 2021 12:30
647K
916K
Friday 5 March 2021 13:30
182K
379K
Friday 5 February 2021 13:30
50K
49K
Friday 8 January 2021 13:30
71K
-140K
Friday 4 December 2020 13:30
469K
245K
Friday 6 November 2020 13:30
600K
638K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change8.827M9.61M
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBullish change48.551.2
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBullish change46.849.2
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.649
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change48.443.8
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change67.768.1
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBullish change2.7%2.8%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change48.744.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change4.2%3.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.3%3.5%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.8%0.4%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.9%-7.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)3.7%3.7%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)2.1%2.1%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change2%1.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change201K204K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-5.2%0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-5.4%-0.7%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.5%0.4%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change0.1%0.9%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change4.4%-8.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.3%0.8%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change50.250.1
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.948.9
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change50.550.2
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2.2%-0.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change220K201K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change12-13.5
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)5.5%5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change4.6%5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBullish change3.4%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd yearBearish change3.1%2.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Current(no change)5.6%5.6%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)2.5%2.5%

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday
 
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