Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Most recent - Friday 10 March 2023 13:30

Previous
504K
Revised
504K
Forecast
205K
Actual
311K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 7 April 2023 12:30

Previous
311K
Forecast
-8K
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is -8K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 311K against a forecast of 205K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
750K
235K
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
870K
943K
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
700K
850K
Friday 4 June 2021 12:30
650K
559K
Friday 7 May 2021 12:30
978K
266K
Friday 2 April 2021 12:30
647K
916K
Friday 5 March 2021 13:30
182K
379K
Friday 5 February 2021 13:30
50K
49K
Friday 8 January 2021 13:30
71K
-140K
Friday 4 December 2020 13:30
469K
245K
Friday 6 November 2020 13:30
600K
638K
Friday 2 October 2020 12:30
850K
661K
Friday 4 September 2020 12:30
1400K
1371K
Friday 7 August 2020 12:30
1600K
1763K
Thursday 2 July 2020 12:30
3000K
4800K
Friday 5 June 2020 12:30
-8000K
2509K
Friday 8 May 2020 12:30
-22000K
-20500K
Friday 3 April 2020 12:30
-100K
-701K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change-0.1%0.2%
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)Bearish change4.6%2.5%
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change50.153.3
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.349.3
S&P Global Services PMIBullish change50.653.8
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-5%-1%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-5.6%-0.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change0.4%0%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBearish change0.3%0.2%
New Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change0.633M0.64M
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Bearish change0.23-0.19
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change192K191K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBullish change196.5K196.25K
Fed Interest Rate DecisionBullish change4.75%5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change4.1%4.3%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year(no change)3.1%3.1%
Interest Rate Projections - Current(no change)5.1%5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)2.5%2.5%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change6763.4
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change2.9%2.8%
Building Permits (MoM)Bullish change1.339M1.524M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bullish change1.321M1.45M
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change212K192K
Initial Jobless Claims 4-week averageBullish change197.25K196.5K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBullish change-24.3-23.2
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)Bearish change5%4.4%
Retail Sales (MoM)Bearish change3.2%-0.4%
Retail Sales Control GroupBearish change2.3%0.5%
Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)Bearish change2.4%-0.1%

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday
 
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