Challenges
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.
Most recent - Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.
Next event - Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.
The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is 170K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.
Trading range
How should I trade NFP?
With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).
One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.
Forecast history
The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 187K against a forecast of 170K.
Past events
Economic context
Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:
About Nonfarm Payrolls
| Country: | United States |
|---|---|
| Currency: | USD |
| Source: | US Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Category: | Labor Market |
| Frequency: | Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday |