Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.

Most recent - Friday 2 February 2024 13:30

Previous
333K
Revised
333K
Forecast
180K
Actual
353K

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 8 March 2024 13:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.

There is no forecast value for Nonfarm Payrolls yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

How should I trade NFP?

With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).

One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 353K against a forecast of 180K.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
180K
353K
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
170K
216K
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
180K
199K
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
180K
150K
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
170K
336K
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
170K
187K
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
200K
187K
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
225K
209K
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
190K
339K
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
179K
253K
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
240K
236K
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
205K
311K
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
185K
517K
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
200K
223K
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
200K
263K
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
200K
261K
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
250K
263K
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
300K
315K
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
250K
528K
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
268K
372K
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
325K
390K
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
391K
428K
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
490K
431K
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
400K
678K
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
150K
467K
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
400K
199K
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
550K
210K
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
425K
531K
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
500K
194K
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
750K
235K
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
870K
943K
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
700K
850K
Friday 4 June 2021 12:30
650K
559K
Friday 7 May 2021 12:30
978K
266K
Friday 2 April 2021 12:30
647K
916K
Friday 5 March 2021 13:30
182K
379K

Economic context

Recent economic data has been moderately bearish for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:

PreviousLatest
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation(no change)2.9%2.9%
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change79.676.9
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change47.145.9
ISM Manufacturing PMIBearish change49.147.8
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change52.549.2
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBearish change52.952.5
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change5.7%-4.9%
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change4644
Personal SpendingBearish change0.7%0.2%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.3%1%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change202K215K
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.9%2.8%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.3%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change2.6%2.4%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change1.5%1.7%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change3.3%3.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change2%2.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change1.7%1.8%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.1%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBearish change-0.1%-0.3%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBearish change0.1%-7.3%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.6%0.1%
Durable Goods OrdersBearish change-0.3%-6.1%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change7.2%1.5%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-0.8%3.1%
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change52.551.3
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change5251.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change50.751.5
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change213K201K

About Nonfarm Payrolls

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday

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