Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is the most potent regular event in the economic calendar, with prices often moving by over 100 pips in a few minutes. The health of the US labor market affects decisions of the Federal Reserve, which in turn move exchange rates. The expected/forecast value of NFP is usually priced in to markets, and what they mainly react to is the "surprise factor": any difference from expectation/forecast, rather than the change since the previous month. A rise in Nonfarm Payrolls is usually bullish for the US dollar: USD/JPY and USD/CAD rise, EUR/USD and GBP/USD fall. A worse than expected result has the opposite effect.
Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.
The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is high.
The consensus forecast for Nonfarm Payrolls is -8K. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.
(A summary of the historic trading range after each event is not available for Nonfarm Payrolls. Please check the candle charts instead.)
The trading range of EURUSD was pips following the most recent Nonfarm Payrolls.
With caution! The market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls is often substantial and immediate. You may get considerable slippage on orders, or your broker may requote (depending on the type of execution).
One strategy is to place buy and sell stop orders either side of the current price, for example at 20 pips, in the expectation of a decisive move in one direction through and far beyond one of the orders. But such orders may still experience slippage, and any such strategy is at risk of a change in market sentiment and an equally rapid reversal.
The most recent announced value for Nonfarm Payrolls was 311K against a forecast of 205K.
Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Nonfarm Payrolls result:
|Housing Price Index (MoM)||Bullish change||-0.1%||0.2%|
|S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY)||Bearish change||4.6%||2.5%|
|S&P Global Composite PMI||Bullish change||50.1||53.3|
|S&P Global Manufacturing PMI||Bullish change||47.3||49.3|
|S&P Global Services PMI||Bullish change||50.6||53.8|
|Durable Goods Orders||Bullish change||-5%||-1%|
|Durable Goods Orders ex Defense||Bullish change||-5.6%||-0.5%|
|Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation||Bearish change||0.4%||0%|
|Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft||Bearish change||0.3%||0.2%|
|New Home Sales (MoM)||Bullish change||0.633M||0.64M|
|Chicago Fed National Activity Index||Bearish change||0.23||-0.19|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Bullish change||192K||191K|
|Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average||Bullish change||196.5K||196.25K|
|Fed Interest Rate Decision||Bullish change||4.75%||5%|
|Interest Rate Projections - 1st year||Bullish change||4.1%||4.3%|
|Interest Rate Projections - 2nd year||(no change)||3.1%||3.1%|
|Interest Rate Projections - Current||(no change)||5.1%||5.1%|
|Interest Rate Projections - Longer||(no change)||2.5%||2.5%|
|Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index||Bearish change||67||63.4|
|UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation||Bearish change||2.9%||2.8%|
|Building Permits (MoM)||Bullish change||1.339M||1.524M|
|Housing Starts (MoM)||Bullish change||1.321M||1.45M|
|Initial Jobless Claims||Bullish change||212K||192K|
|Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average||Bullish change||197.25K||196.5K|
|Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey||Bullish change||-24.3||-23.2|
|Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)||Bearish change||5%||4.4%|
|Retail Sales (MoM)||Bearish change||3.2%||-0.4%|
|Retail Sales Control Group||Bearish change||2.3%||0.5%|
|Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)||Bearish change||2.4%||-0.1%|
|Source:||US Bureau of Labor Statistics|
|Frequency:||Usually the 1st Friday of the month, but sometimes the 2nd Friday|
|Australia||Unemployment Rate s.a.|
|Australia||Employment Change s.a.|
|Canada||Net Change in Employment|
|New Zealand||Unemployment Rate|
|New Zealand||Employment Change|
|United Kingdom||ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)|
|United Kingdom||Claimant Count Change|
|United States||ADP Employment Change|
|Australia||Wage Price Index (QoQ)|
|Canada||Average Hourly Wages (YoY)|
|Switzerland||Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)|
|Germany||Unemployment Rate s.a.|
|Japan||Jobs / Applicants Ratio|
|New Zealand||Participation Rate|
|New Zealand||Labour Cost Index (QoQ)|
|United Kingdom||Claimant Count Rate|
|United Kingdom||Average Earnings Including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)|
|United Kingdom||Average Earnings Excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)|
|United States||ISM Manufacturing Employment Index|
|United States||Unit Labor Costs|
|United States||Personal Income (MoM)|
|United States||ISM Services Employment Index|
|United States||Unemployment Rate|
|United States||Nonfarm Productivity|
|United States||Initial Jobless Claims|
|United States||Labor Force Participation Rate|
|United States||U6 Underemployment Rate|
|United States||Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average|
|United States||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)|
|United States||Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)|
The value of Nonfarm Payrolls has been announced.