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Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Friday 1 September 2023 12:30

Previous
3.5%
Revised
-
Forecast
3.5%
Actual
3.8%

Lower numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Next event - Friday 6 October 2023 12:30

Previous
3.8%
Forecast
3.7%
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

The consensus forecast for Unemployment Rate is 3.7%. A higher value than forecast tends to be bullish for xxx/USD pairs and bearish for USD/xxx pairs.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 3.8% against a forecast of 3.5%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
3.6%
3.4%
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 3 June 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.6%
Friday 6 May 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.6%
Friday 1 April 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.6%
Friday 4 March 2022 13:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 4 February 2022 13:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 7 January 2022 13:30
4.1%
3.9%
Friday 3 December 2021 13:30
4.5%
4.2%
Friday 5 November 2021 12:30
4.7%
4.6%
Friday 8 October 2021 12:30
5.1%
4.8%
Friday 3 September 2021 12:30
5.2%
5.2%
Friday 6 August 2021 12:30
5.7%
5.4%
Friday 2 July 2021 12:30
5.7%
5.9%
Friday 4 June 2021 12:30
5.9%
5.8%
Friday 7 May 2021 12:30
5.8%
6.1%
Friday 2 April 2021 12:30
6%
6%
Friday 5 March 2021 13:30
6.3%
6.2%
Friday 5 February 2021 13:30
6.7%
6.3%
Friday 8 January 2021 13:30
6.8%
6.7%
Friday 4 December 2020 13:30
6.8%
6.7%
Friday 6 November 2020 13:30
7.7%
6.9%
Friday 2 October 2020 12:30
8.2%
7.9%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Chicago Purchasing Managers' IndexBearish change48.744.1
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0.2%0.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bearish change4.3%3.9%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change3.4%3.5%
Personal Income (MoM)Bullish change0.2%0.4%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.9%0.4%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bearish change0.9%-7.1%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(no change)3.7%3.7%
Gross Domestic Product Annualized(no change)2.1%2.1%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBearish change2%1.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBearish change202K204K
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(no change)2.5%2.5%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-5.6%0.2%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-6%-0.7%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0.1%0.4%
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-0.4%0.9%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change8%-8.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.4%0.8%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change50.250.1
S&P Global Manufacturing PMIBullish change47.948.9
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change50.550.2
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-2.2%-0.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change221K201K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing SurveyBearish change12-13.5
Fed Interest Rate Decision(no change)5.5%5.5%
Interest Rate Projections - 1st yearBullish change4.6%5.1%
Interest Rate Projections - 2nd yearBullish change3.4%3.9%
Interest Rate Projections - 3rd yearBearish change3.1%2.9%
Interest Rate Projections - Current(no change)5.6%5.6%
Interest Rate Projections - Longer(no change)2.5%2.5%
Building Permits (MoM)Bullish change1.443M1.543M
Housing Starts (MoM)Bearish change1.447M1.283M
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBearish change69.567.7
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change3%2.7%

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
 
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